OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov · Lightweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Ismael Bonfim 72% · Decision · Distance · scored miss (Axel Sola / Submission)

Ismael Bonfim vs Axel Sola

Ismael Bonfim
BrazilBrazil

Ismael Bonfim

“Marreta”

Unranked · 20-7 · striker · Orthodox · 30 · IQ C 57

Cerrado MMA · Brazil

VS
Axel Sola
FranceFrance

Axel Sola

Unranked · 12-1-1 · striker · Southpaw · 28 · IQ B+ 78

Boxing Squad · France

Ismael Bonfim

71.6%

Axel Sola

28.4%

Model win probability · confidence 74%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Bonfim 72 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Ismael Bonfim is the model side at 71.6% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Striking defense is the clearest separator: Bonfim 70 (B) vs Sola 40 (D). Bonfim absorbs 2.67/min at 57% defense; Sola is a softer target at 7.33 SApM.

  1. 01

    Striking defense

    Bonfim

    Bonfim 70 (B) vs Sola 40 (D). Bonfim absorbs 2.67/min at 57% defense; Sola is a softer target at 7.33 SApM.

  2. 02

    Fight IQ

    Sola

    Sola 78 (B+) vs Bonfim 57 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Sola (B+ vs C).

  3. 03

    Timing & reaction

    Bonfim

    Bonfim 63 (C+) vs Sola 43 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Bonfim.

  4. 04

    Punching agility

    Bonfim

    Bonfim 65 (C+) vs Sola 47 (D). Hand speed / output lean Bonfim (5.5 SLpM at 55%).

Path · Bonfim

Bonfim has to stuff the first takedown (54 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 40 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Sola

Sola has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Bonfim defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Bonfim is built as: Volume pressure striker — suspect hips against the shot. Sola is built as: Pocket striker — porous pocket, southpaw. Fight IQ delta is -21 toward Sola — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Striking defense: Bonfim 70 (B) vs Sola 40 (D). Bonfim absorbs 2.67/min at 57% defense; Sola is a softer target at 7.33 SApM. Fight IQ: Sola 78 (B+) vs Bonfim 57 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Sola (B+ vs C). Timing & reaction: Bonfim 63 (C+) vs Sola 43 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Bonfim.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (53%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

BonfimTraitSola
57 C
IQ
78 B+
29 D
Ground
43 D
70 B
Defense
40 D
38 D
Counter
43 D
63 C+
Reaction
43 D
65 C+
Agility
47 D
54 C
TD react
66 C+
85 A
Chin
84 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
30%
Submission
17%
Decision
53%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

19%

R2

13%

R3

15%

Dist

53%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.2 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    2.84 vs -2.44 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Bonfim

  • Damage ratio

    2.06 vs 0.62 landed/absorbed

    Bonfim

  • Fight IQ

    C 57 vs B+ 78 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Sola

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    B vs D

    Bonfim

  • Ground game (tape)

    29 vs 43

    Sola

  • Output (SLpM)

    5.51 vs 3.96

    Bonfim

  • Takedown reaction

    81% vs 77% hips on the shot

    Sola

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Bonfim

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/6 UFC rows

    Sola

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Bonfim

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Sola

  • Reach / length

    71.5" vs 74.0"

    Sola

  • Counter punching

    38 vs 43

    Sola

  • Striking defense

    57% vs 55%

    Bonfim

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 57

    Sola

  • Striking efficiency

    55% vs 54%

    Bonfim

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Sola

  • Age-adjusted curve

    30 vs 28

    Sola

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Bonfim

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Bonfim

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Sola

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 81% vs 79%

    Bonfim

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Bonfim

Tape

BonfimMetricSola
5.51SLpM4.50
2.67SApM7.33
55%Str Acc56%
57%Str Def53%
1.06TD Avg1.89
33%TD Acc36%
81%TD Def77%
0.00Sub Avg0.47
0.10KD/150.00
5'12"Reach6'2"
30Age28

Ismael Bonfim

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Axel Sola

W

Fighter 3093513

Submission · R1 4:44

Jul 25, 2026
L

Mason Jones

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Mar 21, 2026
W

Fighter 4078243

KO/TKO · R3 2:02

Sep 6, 2025
W

Fighter 5135143

Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00

Jun 14, 2025
W

Fighter 3734006

KO/TKO · R2 3:43

Jan 18, 2025
W

Fighter 5245444

KO/TKO · R2 4:59

Sep 26, 2024

Your pick

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