OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov · Light Heavyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Brendson Ribeiro 77% · Decision · Distance · scored miss (Magomed Tuchalov / Decision - Unanimous)

Magomed Tuchalov vs Brendson Ribeiro

Magomed Tuchalov
RussiaRussia

Magomed Tuchalov

“Tiger”

Unranked · 7-0 · hybrid · Orthodox · 26 · IQ C+ 68

Dagestan Fighter · Russia

VS
Brendson Ribeiro
BrazilBrazil

Brendson Ribeiro

“The Gorilla”

Unranked · 17-11 · hybrid · Orthodox · 29 · IQ C 53

Brazilian TKO · Brazil

Magomed Tuchalov

22.9%

Brendson Ribeiro

77.1%

Model win probability · confidence 73%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Ribeiro 77 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Brendson Ribeiro is the model side at 77.1% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Ribeiro (ground 41) into Tuchalov (TD reaction 69). Ground game is the clearest separator: Ribeiro 41 (D) vs Tuchalov 15 (D). Ribeiro brings 0.8 TD/15 and 7 sub wins into Tuchalov's 85% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Ribeiro

    Ribeiro 41 (D) vs Tuchalov 15 (D). Ribeiro brings 0.8 TD/15 and 7 sub wins into Tuchalov's 85% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Fight IQ

    Tuchalov

    Tuchalov 68 (C+) vs Ribeiro 53 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Tuchalov (C+ vs C).

  3. 03

    Takedown reaction

    Tuchalov

    Tuchalov 69 (B) vs Ribeiro 59 (C). When the shot comes, Tuchalov stuffs it at 85% — Ribeiro is at 82%.

  4. 04

    Striking defense

    Ribeiro

    Ribeiro 63 (C+) vs Tuchalov 57 (C). Ribeiro absorbs 3.54/min at 62% defense; Tuchalov is a softer target at 4.60 SApM.

Path · Tuchalov

Tuchalov has to stuff the first takedown (69 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 63 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Ribeiro

Ribeiro has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Tuchalov defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Tuchalov attacking counter punching with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Ribeiro is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Tuchalov is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is -14 toward Tuchalov — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Ribeiro 41 (D) vs Tuchalov 15 (D). Ribeiro brings 0.8 TD/15 and 7 sub wins into Tuchalov's 85% takedown defense. Fight IQ: Tuchalov 68 (C+) vs Ribeiro 53 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Tuchalov (C+ vs C). Takedown reaction: Tuchalov 69 (B) vs Ribeiro 59 (C). When the shot comes, Tuchalov stuffs it at 85% — Ribeiro is at 82%.

The finish path leans strikes (31% KO/TKO vs 31% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Tuchalov attacking counter punching with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

TuchalovTraitRibeiro
68 C+
IQ
53 C
15 D
Ground
41 D
57 C
Defense
63 C+
37 D
Counter
36 D
59 C
Reaction
64 C+
39 D
Agility
42 D
69 B
TD react
59 C
85 A
Chin
80 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
31%
Submission
31%
Decision
39%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

24%

R2

17%

R3

20%

Dist

39%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.1 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Ribeiro (ground 41) into Tuchalov (TD reaction 69).

  • Striking differential

    -4.60 vs -0.50 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Ribeiro

  • Striking efficiency

    0% vs 45%

    Ribeiro

  • Damage ratio

    0.00 vs 0.86 landed/absorbed

    Ribeiro

  • Ground game (tape)

    15 vs 41

    Ribeiro

  • Output (SLpM)

    0.00 vs 3.04

    Ribeiro

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 68 vs C 53 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Tuchalov

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Tuchalov

  • Striking defense

    68% vs 62%

    Tuchalov

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Ribeiro

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 82% hips on the shot

    Tuchalov

  • Reach / length

    78.0" vs 81.0"

    Ribeiro

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C vs C+

    Ribeiro

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Ribeiro (ground 41) into Tuchalov (TD reaction 69).

    Ribeiro

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Tuchalov

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Ribeiro

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Ribeiro

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Ribeiro

  • Age-adjusted curve

    26 vs 29

    Tuchalov

  • Counter punching

    37 vs 36

    Tuchalov

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 85% vs 82%

    Tuchalov

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Tuchalov

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Tuchalov

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Tuchalov

Tape

TuchalovMetricRibeiro
0.00SLpM3.04
4.60SApM3.54
0%Str Acc45%
68%Str Def62%
0.00TD Avg0.85
0%TD Acc43%
85%TD Def82%
0.00Sub Avg0.57
0.10KD/150.10
6'6"Reach6'9"
26Age29

Magomed Tuchalov

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Brendson Ribeiro

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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