OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov · Heavyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Rizvan Kuniev 71% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Rizvan Kuniev / KO/TKO)

Rizvan Kuniev vs Tyrell Fortune

Rizvan Kuniev
RussiaRussia

Rizvan Kuniev

Unranked · 14-3-1 · striker · Orthodox · 34 · IQ C+ 66

Gorets · Russia

VS
Tyrell Fortune
USAUSA

Tyrell Fortune

Unranked · 18-4 · hybrid · Orthodox · 36 · IQ C+ 65

Kill Cliff FC · USA

Rizvan Kuniev

71.0%

Tyrell Fortune

29.0%

Model win probability · confidence 66%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Kuniev 71 — the tape favors pocket striker

Rizvan Kuniev is the model side at 71.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. striker meets hybrid. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Kuniev 65 (C+) vs Fortune 40 (D). Hand speed / output lean Kuniev (3.9 SLpM at 66%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Kuniev

    Kuniev 65 (C+) vs Fortune 40 (D). Hand speed / output lean Kuniev (3.9 SLpM at 66%).

  2. 02

    Counter punching

    Kuniev

    Kuniev 59 (C) vs Fortune 45 (D). Kuniev's return is the live one (0.44 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Fortune's entries.

  3. 03

    Takedown reaction

    Kuniev

    Kuniev 67 (C+) vs Fortune 59 (C). When the shot comes, Kuniev stuffs it at 81% — Fortune is at 78%.

  4. 04

    Timing & reaction

    Kuniev

    Kuniev 64 (C+) vs Fortune 56 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Kuniev.

Path · Kuniev

Volume. Kuniev wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Fortune a clean reset.

Path · Fortune

Fortune wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Kuniev a long look at durability.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Kuniev is built as: Pocket striker. Fortune is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +1 toward Kuniev — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Kuniev 65 (C+) vs Fortune 40 (D). Hand speed / output lean Kuniev (3.9 SLpM at 66%). Counter punching: Kuniev 59 (C) vs Fortune 45 (D). Kuniev's return is the live one (0.44 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Fortune's entries. Takedown reaction: Kuniev 67 (C+) vs Fortune 59 (C). When the shot comes, Kuniev stuffs it at 81% — Fortune is at 78%.

The finish path leans strikes (41% KO/TKO vs 13% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

KunievTraitFortune
66 C+
IQ
65 C+
35 D
Ground
36 D
65 C+
Defense
61 C+
59 C
Counter
45 D
64 C+
Reaction
56 C
65 C+
Agility
40 D
67 C+
TD react
59 C
85 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
41%
Submission
13%
Decision
46%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

23%

R2

15%

R3

16%

Dist

46%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.6 minutes.

Style matchup

striker meets hybrid.

  • Striking differential

    0.72 vs -2.02 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Kuniev

  • Damage ratio

    1.22 vs 0.49 landed/absorbed

    Kuniev

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.94 vs 1.91

    Kuniev

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Kuniev

  • Counter punching

    59 vs 45

    Kuniev

  • Takedown reaction

    81% vs 78% hips on the shot

    Kuniev

  • Striking efficiency

    66% vs 59%

    Kuniev

  • Striking defense

    60% vs 64%

    Fortune

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Kuniev

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Kuniev

  • Reach / length

    76.0" vs 75.0"

    Kuniev

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Fortune

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Kuniev

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 66 vs C+ 65 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Kuniev

  • Ground game (tape)

    35 vs 36

    Fortune

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 81% vs 78%

    Kuniev

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Kuniev

  • Age-adjusted curve

    34 vs 36

    Kuniev

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Kuniev

  • Style interaction

    striker meets hybrid.

    Kuniev

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Kuniev

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Kuniev

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Kuniev

Tape

KunievMetricFortune
3.94SLpM1.91
3.22SApM3.93
66%Str Acc59%
60%Str Def64%
0.98TD Avg1.72
75%TD Acc43%
81%TD Def78%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.44KD/150.10
6'4"Reach6'3"
34Age36

Rizvan Kuniev

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Tyrell Fortune

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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