OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · Bantamweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Marcus McGhee 67% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Marcus McGhee / Decision - Unanimous)

Marcus McGhee vs John Yannis

Marcus McGhee
USAUSA

Marcus McGhee

“The Maniac”

Unranked · 11-2 · striker · Orthodox · 36 · IQ C 50

MMA LAB · USA

VS
John Yannis
USAUSA

John Yannis

Unranked · 10-5 · striker · Southpaw · 32 · IQ C 51

Victory MMA · USA

Marcus McGhee

66.5%

John Yannis

33.5%

Model win probability · confidence 61%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

McGhee 67 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Marcus McGhee is the model side at 66.5% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Counter punching is the clearest separator: Yannis 46 (D) vs McGhee 35 (D). Yannis's return is the live one (0.19 KD/15, 0 KOs) against McGhee's entries.

  1. 01

    Counter punching

    Yannis

    Yannis 46 (D) vs McGhee 35 (D). Yannis's return is the live one (0.19 KD/15, 0 KOs) against McGhee's entries.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    McGhee

    McGhee 56 (C) vs Yannis 49 (D). Hand speed / output lean McGhee (5.4 SLpM at 44%).

  3. 03

    Ground game

    McGhee

    McGhee 18 (D) vs Yannis 12 (D). McGhee brings 0.2 TD/15 and 1 sub wins into Yannis's 85% takedown defense.

  4. 04

    Striking defense

    McGhee

    McGhee 69 (B) vs Yannis 64 (C+). McGhee absorbs 2.70/min at 57% defense; Yannis is a softer target at 3.45 SApM.

Path · McGhee

Volume. McGhee wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Yannis a clean reset.

Path · Yannis

Yannis wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying McGhee a long look at durability.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. McGhee is built as: Volume pressure striker — suspect hips against the shot. Yannis is built as: Pocket striker — southpaw. Fight IQ delta is -1 toward Yannis — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Counter punching: Yannis 46 (D) vs McGhee 35 (D). Yannis's return is the live one (0.19 KD/15, 0 KOs) against McGhee's entries. Punching agility: McGhee 56 (C) vs Yannis 49 (D). Hand speed / output lean McGhee (5.4 SLpM at 44%). Ground game: McGhee 18 (D) vs Yannis 12 (D). McGhee brings 0.2 TD/15 and 1 sub wins into Yannis's 85% takedown defense.

The finish path leans strikes (36% KO/TKO vs 18% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

McGheeTraitYannis
50 C
IQ
51 C
18 D
Ground
12 D
69 B
Defense
64 C+
35 D
Counter
46 D
62 C+
Reaction
66 C+
56 C
Agility
49 D
55 C
TD react
57 C
85 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
36%
Submission
18%
Decision
46%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

23%

R2

15%

R3

16%

Dist

46%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.6 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    2.74 vs -0.15 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    McGhee

  • Damage ratio

    2.01 vs 0.96 landed/absorbed

    McGhee

  • Output (SLpM)

    5.44 vs 3.30

    McGhee

  • Striking efficiency

    44% vs 53%

    Yannis

  • Counter punching

    35 vs 46

    Yannis

  • Ground game (tape)

    18 vs 12

    McGhee

  • Striking defense

    57% vs 61%

    Yannis

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    McGhee

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    B vs C+

    McGhee

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    McGhee

  • Age-adjusted curve

    36 vs 32

    Yannis

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    McGhee

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Yannis

  • Reach / length

    69.0" vs 70.0"

    Yannis

  • Takedown reaction

    84% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Yannis

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    McGhee

  • Fight IQ

    C 50 vs C 51 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Yannis

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    McGhee

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 84% vs 85%

    Yannis

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    McGhee

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    McGhee

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    McGhee

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    McGhee

Tape

McGheeMetricYannis
5.44SLpM3.30
2.70SApM3.45
44%Str Acc53%
57%Str Def61%
0.24TD Avg0.00
11%TD Acc0%
84%TD Def85%
0.24Sub Avg0.00
0.43KD/150.19
5'9"Reach5'10"
36Age32

Marcus McGhee

No recent UFC tape in the book.

John Yannis

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

Desk briefing

Sign in to request a written analyst note on this fight.