UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · Light Heavyweight · 3 rounds
Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Iwo Baraniewski 91% · KO/TKO · Round 1 · scored hit (Iwo Baraniewski / KO/TKO)
Iwo Baraniewski vs Junior Tafa
PolandIwo Baraniewski
“Rudy”
Unranked · 9-0 · striker · Orthodox · 27 · IQ B 71
Aligatores Fight Club · Poland
AustraliaJunior Tafa
“The Juggernaut”
Unranked · 7-6 · striker · Orthodox · 29 · IQ D 48
NTG Fight & Fitness · Australia
Iwo Baraniewski
91.0%
Junior Tafa
9.0%
Model win probability · confidence 86%
No market posted yet.
Why the model leans this way
Baraniewski 91 — the tape favors power striker
Iwo Baraniewski is the model side at 91.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Baraniewski 95 (A+) vs Tafa 49 (D). Hand speed / output lean Baraniewski (15.8 SLpM at 72%).
- 01
Punching agility
BaraniewskiBaraniewski 95 (A+) vs Tafa 49 (D). Hand speed / output lean Baraniewski (15.8 SLpM at 72%).
- 02
Striking defense
BaraniewskiBaraniewski 94 (A+) vs Tafa 54 (C). Baraniewski absorbs 0.00/min at 100% defense; Tafa is a softer target at 3.93 SApM.
- 03
Timing & reaction
BaraniewskiBaraniewski 92 (A+) vs Tafa 60 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Baraniewski.
- 04
Fight IQ
BaraniewskiBaraniewski 71 (B) vs Tafa 48 (D). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Baraniewski (B vs D).
Path · Baraniewski
Baraniewski should keep this standing, feint the level change, and make Tafa reach. The counter is built for a high-SApM pocket.
Path · Tafa
Tafa wins by forcing the fight into their best skill and denying Baraniewski a long look at punching agility.
This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Tafa attacking ground game with their best weapon.
Full read
Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Baraniewski is built as: Power striker. Tafa is built as: Power striker — porous pocket. Fight IQ delta is +23 toward Baraniewski — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.
The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Baraniewski 95 (A+) vs Tafa 49 (D). Hand speed / output lean Baraniewski (15.8 SLpM at 72%). Striking defense: Baraniewski 94 (A+) vs Tafa 54 (C). Baraniewski absorbs 0.00/min at 100% defense; Tafa is a softer target at 3.93 SApM. Timing & reaction: Baraniewski 92 (A+) vs Tafa 60 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Baraniewski.
The finish path leans strikes (65% KO/TKO vs 19% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Tafa attacking ground game with their best weapon. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.
Style & IQ board
Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.
Method of victory
Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.
Duration
R1
44%
R2
18%
R3
22%
Dist
16%
Most likely: Round 1. Expected 7.6 minutes.
Style matchup
Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.
Damage ratio
7.08 vs 0.96 landed/absorbed
BaraniewskiStriking differential
7.30 vs -0.16 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)
BaraniewskiRecency form
Opp.-adjusted last 6/6 UFC rows
BaraniewskiOutput (SLpM)
8.50 vs 3.87
BaraniewskiStriking defense
82% vs 57%
BaraniewskiFight IQ
B 71 vs D 48 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments
BaraniewskiPocket defense (tape)
A+ vs C
BaraniewskiPunching agility
Output × accuracy × age curve
BaraniewskiTiming & reaction
Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy
BaraniewskiCounter punching
72 vs 55
BaraniewskiTakedown reaction
85% vs 89% hips on the shot
BaraniewskiCardio proxy
Output sustainability + distance rate
BaraniewskiDurability
0 vs 0 KO losses
TafaGround game (tape)
16 vs 12
BaraniewskiStriking efficiency
59% vs 55%
BaraniewskiReach / length
73.5" vs 75.0"
TafaStrength of schedule
Opp. quality 52 vs 56
TafaAge-adjusted curve
27 vs 29
BaraniewskiGrappling composite
TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)
BaraniewskiTakedown mismatch
TD def 88% vs 88%
BaraniewskiStyle interaction
Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.
BaraniewskiLayoff / rust
Time since last fight
BaraniewskiChampionship / 5-round
Three-round fight
Baraniewski
Tape
Iwo Baraniewski
Junior Tafa
KO/TKO · R1 1:25
Fighter 2223033
KO/TKO · R1 0:28
Fighter 4684240
KO/TKO · R1 1:29
Fighter 5307811
KO/TKO · R1 0:20
Fighter 5308009
KO/TKO · R1 3:02
Fighter 4236989
KO/TKO · R1 3:01
Junior Tafa
Iwo Baraniewski
KO/TKO · R1 1:25
Fighter 5216849
KO/TKO · R1 2:42
Fighter 5078114
Submission · R2 3:18
Fighter 4410698
Submission · R2 4:25
Sean Sharaf
KO/TKO · R2 2:15
Fighter 5147389
Submission · R1 4:56
Your pick
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