OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez · Middleweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Duško Todorović 72% · Decision · Distance · scored miss (Robert Valentin / Submission)

Duško Todorović vs Robert Valentin

Duško Todorović
SerbiaSerbia

Duško Todorović

“Thunder”

Unranked · 13-7 · striker · Orthodox · 32 · IQ C+ 66

Secutor · Serbia

VS
Robert Valentin
SwitzerlandSwitzerland

Robert Valentin

“Robzilla”

Unranked · 13-6 · grappler · Orthodox · 31 · IQ C+ 65

Fight Move Academy · Switzerland

Duško Todorović

72.5%

Robert Valentin

27.5%

Model win probability · confidence 68%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Todorović 72 — the tape favors pocket striker

Duško Todorović is the model side at 72.5% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Valentin (ground 56) into Todorović (TD reaction 62). Punching agility is the clearest separator: Todorović 71 (B) vs Valentin 49 (D). Hand speed / output lean Todorović (4.7 SLpM at 68%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Todorović

    Todorović 71 (B) vs Valentin 49 (D). Hand speed / output lean Todorović (4.7 SLpM at 68%).

  2. 02

    Ground game

    Valentin

    Valentin 56 (C) vs Todorović 39 (D). Valentin brings 0.6 TD/15 and 9 sub wins into Todorović's 78% takedown defense.

  3. 03

    Durability

    Todorović

    Todorović 84 (A) vs Valentin 72 (B). Todorović has been finished by strikes 0 times; Valentin 0.

  4. 04

    Striking defense

    Todorović

    Todorović 67 (C+) vs Valentin 61 (C+). Todorović absorbs 2.94/min at 59% defense; Valentin is a softer target at 4.14 SApM.

Path · Todorović

Todorović has to stuff the first takedown (62 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 61 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Valentin

Valentin has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Todorović defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Valentin attacking ground game with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Todorović is built as: Pocket striker. Valentin is built as: Submission hunter. Fight IQ delta is +2 toward Todorović — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Todorović 71 (B) vs Valentin 49 (D). Hand speed / output lean Todorović (4.7 SLpM at 68%). Ground game: Valentin 56 (C) vs Todorović 39 (D). Valentin brings 0.6 TD/15 and 9 sub wins into Todorović's 78% takedown defense. Durability: Todorović 84 (A) vs Valentin 72 (B). Todorović has been finished by strikes 0 times; Valentin 0.

The finish path leans strikes (34% KO/TKO vs 27% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Valentin attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

TodorovićTraitValentin
66 C+
IQ
65 C+
39 D
Ground
56 C
67 C+
Defense
61 C+
57 C
Counter
52 C
66 C+
Reaction
64 C+
71 B
Agility
49 D
62 C+
TD react
63 C+
84 A
Chin
72 B

Method of victory

KO / TKO
34%
Submission
27%
Decision
38%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

26%

R2

17%

R3

19%

Dist

38%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 9.9 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Valentin (ground 56) into Todorović (TD reaction 62).

  • Striking differential

    1.79 vs -2.84 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Todorović

  • Damage ratio

    1.61 vs 0.31 landed/absorbed

    Todorović

  • Output (SLpM)

    4.73 vs 1.30

    Todorović

  • Ground game (tape)

    39 vs 56

    Valentin

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Todorović

  • Striking defense

    59% vs 65%

    Valentin

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Valentin

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Todorović

  • Reach / length

    74.0" vs 77.0"

    Valentin

  • Striking efficiency

    68% vs 73%

    Valentin

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Todorović

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Valentin (ground 56) into Todorović (TD reaction 62).

    Valentin

  • Counter punching

    57 vs 52

    Todorović

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 66 vs C+ 65 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Todorović

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Todorović

  • Age-adjusted curve

    32 vs 31

    Valentin

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Valentin

  • Takedown reaction

    78% vs 83% hips on the shot

    Valentin

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Todorović

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 78% vs 83%

    Valentin

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Todorović

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Todorović

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Todorović

Tape

TodorovićMetricValentin
4.73SLpM1.30
2.94SApM4.14
68%Str Acc73%
59%Str Def65%
1.77TD Avg0.59
21%TD Acc50%
78%TD Def83%
0.35Sub Avg1.78
0.42KD/150.10
6'2"Reach6'5"
32Age31

Duško Todorović

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Robert Valentin

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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