OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez · Heavyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Aleksandar Rakic 53% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Aleksandar Rakic / Decision - Unanimous)

Aleksandar Rakic vs Marcin Tybura

Aleksandar Rakic
SerbiaSerbia

Aleksandar Rakic

“Rocket”

#5 · 15-6 · striker · Orthodox · 34 · IQ C+ 66

Gym 23 · Serbia

VS
Marcin Tybura
PolandPoland

Marcin Tybura

“Tybur”

Unranked · 27-12 · striker · Orthodox · 40 · IQ C+ 66

Ankos MMA · Poland

Aleksandar Rakic

52.6%

Marcin Tybura

47.4%

Model win probability · confidence 46%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Rakic 53 — the tape favors pocket striker

Aleksandar Rakic is the model side at 52.6% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Rakic 63 (C+) vs Tybura 50 (C). Hand speed / output lean Rakic (4.2 SLpM at 62%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Rakic

    Rakic 63 (C+) vs Tybura 50 (C). Hand speed / output lean Rakic (4.2 SLpM at 62%).

  2. 02

    Ground game

    Tybura

    Tybura 33 (D) vs Rakic 21 (D). Tybura brings 1.2 TD/15 and 7 sub wins into Rakic's 83% takedown defense.

  3. 03

    Striking defense

    Rakic

    Rakic 72 (B) vs Tybura 64 (C+). Rakic absorbs 2.07/min at 56% defense; Tybura is a softer target at 3.38 SApM.

  4. 04

    Durability

    Tybura

    Tybura 85 (A) vs Rakic 78 (B+). Tybura has been finished by strikes 0 times; Rakic 0.

Path · Rakic

Rakic has to stuff the first takedown (63 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 64 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Tybura

Tybura has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Rakic defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Rakic is built as: Pocket striker. Tybura is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is -0 toward Tybura — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Rakic 63 (C+) vs Tybura 50 (C). Hand speed / output lean Rakic (4.2 SLpM at 62%). Ground game: Tybura 33 (D) vs Rakic 21 (D). Tybura brings 1.2 TD/15 and 7 sub wins into Rakic's 83% takedown defense. Striking defense: Rakic 72 (B) vs Tybura 64 (C+). Rakic absorbs 2.07/min at 56% defense; Tybura is a softer target at 3.38 SApM.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (51%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

RakicTraitTybura
66 C+
IQ
66 C+
21 D
Ground
33 D
72 B
Defense
64 C+
51 C
Counter
52 C
62 C+
Reaction
59 C
63 C+
Agility
50 C
63 C+
TD react
65 C+
78 B+
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
42%
Submission
8%
Decision
51%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

21%

R2

13%

R3

15%

Dist

51%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

  • Striking differential

    1.37 vs 0.11 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Rakic

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 1/0 UFC rows

    Tybura

  • Damage ratio

    1.60 vs 1.03 landed/absorbed

    Rakic

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 96 vs 50

    Rakic

  • Ground game (tape)

    21 vs 33

    Tybura

  • Striking defense

    54% vs 61%

    Tybura

  • Striking efficiency

    52% vs 59%

    Tybura

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Rakic

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    B vs C+

    Rakic

  • Age-adjusted curve

    34 vs 40

    Rakic

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Tybura

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Tybura

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Rakic

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Rakic

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.67 vs 3.49

    Rakic

  • Takedown reaction

    83% vs 80% hips on the shot

    Tybura

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Tybura

  • Counter punching

    51 vs 52

    Tybura

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 66 vs C+ 66 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Tybura

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 80% vs 80%

    Rakic

  • Reach / length

    78.0" vs 78.0"

    Rakic

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

    Rakic

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Rakic

Tape

RakicMetricTybura
4.20SLpM3.49
2.07SApM3.38
62%Str Acc59%
56%Str Def61%
0.57TD Avg1.23
22%TD Acc32%
83%TD Def80%
0.11Sub Avg0.11
0.00KD/150.29
6'6"Reach6'6"
34Age40

Aleksandar Rakic

L

Jan Blachowicz

KO/TKO · R3 1:11

May 15, 2022

Marcin Tybura

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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