OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2 · Featherweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Michael Aswell 84% · Decision · Distance · scored miss (Gaston Bolaños / Decision - Unanimous)

Gaston Bolaños vs Michael Aswell

Gaston Bolaños
PeruPeru

Gaston Bolaños

“The Dreamkiller”

Unranked · 9-5 · striker · Orthodox · 33 · IQ D 48

Combat Sports Academy · Peru

VS
Michael Aswell
USAUSA

Michael Aswell

“The Texas Kid”

Unranked · 11-5 · striker · Orthodox · 25 · IQ C 52

4oz Fight Club · USA

Gaston Bolaños

16.1%

Michael Aswell

83.9%

Model win probability · confidence 86%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Aswell 84 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Michael Aswell is the model side at 83.9% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Aswell 70 (B) vs Bolaños 48 (D). Hand speed / output lean Aswell (7.8 SLpM at 47%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Aswell

    Aswell 70 (B) vs Bolaños 48 (D). Hand speed / output lean Aswell (7.8 SLpM at 47%).

  2. 02

    Counter punching

    Bolaños

    Bolaños 44 (D) vs Aswell 25 (D). Bolaños's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Aswell's entries.

  3. 03

    Takedown reaction

    Aswell

    Aswell 68 (B) vs Bolaños 54 (C). When the shot comes, Aswell stuffs it at 84% — Bolaños is at 82%.

  4. 04

    Striking defense

    Aswell

    Aswell 73 (B) vs Bolaños 64 (C+). Aswell absorbs 1.87/min at 52% defense; Bolaños is a softer target at 3.45 SApM.

Path · Bolaños

Bolaños wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Aswell a long look at durability.

Path · Aswell

Volume. Aswell wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Bolaños a clean reset.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Bolaños attacking ground game with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Aswell is built as: Volume pressure striker. Bolaños is built as: Pocket striker — suspect hips against the shot. Fight IQ delta is +4 toward Aswell — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Aswell 70 (B) vs Bolaños 48 (D). Hand speed / output lean Aswell (7.8 SLpM at 47%). Counter punching: Bolaños 44 (D) vs Aswell 25 (D). Bolaños's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Aswell's entries. Takedown reaction: Aswell 68 (B) vs Bolaños 54 (C). When the shot comes, Aswell stuffs it at 84% — Bolaños is at 82%.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (54%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Bolaños attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

BolañosTraitAswell
48 D
IQ
52 C
30 D
Ground
24 D
64 C+
Defense
73 B
44 D
Counter
25 D
64 C+
Reaction
65 C+
48 D
Agility
70 B
54 C
TD react
68 B
85 A
Chin
82 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
29%
Submission
17%
Decision
54%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

19%

R2

13%

R3

14%

Dist

54%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.3 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

  • Striking differential

    -0.17 vs 5.88 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Aswell

  • Damage ratio

    0.95 vs 4.00 landed/absorbed

    Aswell

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.28 vs 7.84

    Aswell

  • Striking defense

    61% vs 52%

    Bolaños

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/6 UFC rows

    Bolaños

  • Counter punching

    44 vs 25

    Bolaños

  • Takedown reaction

    82% vs 84% hips on the shot

    Aswell

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Aswell

  • Striking efficiency

    54% vs 43%

    Bolaños

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Aswell

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs B

    Aswell

  • Ground game (tape)

    30 vs 24

    Bolaños

  • Fight IQ

    D 48 vs C 52 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Aswell

  • Age-adjusted curve

    33 vs 25

    Aswell

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Bolaños

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 57

    Aswell

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Bolaños

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Aswell

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Aswell

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 82% vs 83%

    Aswell

  • Reach / length

    69.0" vs 69.0"

    Bolaños

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

    Bolaños

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Bolaños

Tape

BolañosMetricAswell
3.28SLpM7.79
3.45SApM1.87
54%Str Acc47%
61%Str Def52%
0.66TD Avg0.32
100%TD Acc100%
82%TD Def84%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.18
5'9"Reach5'9"
33Age25

Gaston Bolaños

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Michael Aswell

L

Fighter 4393818

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Jun 20, 2026
L

Fighter 5146696

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Mar 21, 2026
W

Fighter 4863328

KO/TKO · R1 1:42

Oct 11, 2025
L

Fighter 5145682

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

May 31, 2025
W

Fighter 5172335

Decision - Split · R3 5:00

Dec 15, 2024
L

Fighter 5144006

Decision - Split · R3 5:00

Aug 28, 2024

Your pick

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