OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2 · Featherweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Murtazali Magomedov 59% · Submission · Round 1 · scored hit (Murtazali Magomedov / Submission)

Melsik Baghdasaryan vs Murtazali Magomedov

Melsik Baghdasaryan
ArmeniaArmenia

Melsik Baghdasaryan

“The Gun”

Unranked · 8-4 · striker · Southpaw · 34 · IQ D 46

Glendale Fighting Club · Armenia

VS
Murtazali Magomedov
KyrgyzstanKyrgyzstan

Murtazali Magomedov

“The Highlight”

Unranked · 11-0 · striker · Orthodox · 26 · IQ B 69

KHK MMA Team · Kyrgyzstan

Melsik Baghdasaryan

41.4%

Murtazali Magomedov

58.6%

Model win probability · confidence 52%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Magomedov 59 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Murtazali Magomedov is the model side at 58.6% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Fight IQ is the clearest separator: Magomedov 69 (B) vs Baghdasaryan 46 (D). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Magomedov (B vs D).

  1. 01

    Fight IQ

    Magomedov

    Magomedov 69 (B) vs Baghdasaryan 46 (D). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Magomedov (B vs D).

  2. 02

    Counter punching

    Baghdasaryan

    Baghdasaryan 47 (D) vs Magomedov 28 (D). Baghdasaryan's return is the live one (0.23 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Magomedov's entries.

  3. 03

    Takedown reaction

    Magomedov

    Magomedov 69 (B) vs Baghdasaryan 55 (C). When the shot comes, Magomedov stuffs it at 85% — Baghdasaryan is at 85%.

  4. 04

    Punching agility

    Baghdasaryan

    Baghdasaryan 66 (C+) vs Magomedov 57 (C). Hand speed / output lean Baghdasaryan (5.0 SLpM at 61%).

Path · Baghdasaryan

Baghdasaryan wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Magomedov a long look at durability.

Path · Magomedov

Magomedov has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Baghdasaryan defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Magomedov is built as: Volume pressure striker. Baghdasaryan is built as: Pocket striker — southpaw. Fight IQ delta is +23 toward Magomedov — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Fight IQ: Magomedov 69 (B) vs Baghdasaryan 46 (D). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Magomedov (B vs D). Counter punching: Baghdasaryan 47 (D) vs Magomedov 28 (D). Baghdasaryan's return is the live one (0.23 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Magomedov's entries. Takedown reaction: Magomedov 69 (B) vs Baghdasaryan 55 (C). When the shot comes, Magomedov stuffs it at 85% — Baghdasaryan is at 85%.

The finish path leans the mat (39% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

BaghdasaryanTraitMagomedov
46 D
IQ
69 B
12 D
Ground
21 D
68 C+
Defense
70 B
47 D
Counter
28 D
64 C+
Reaction
67 C+
66 C+
Agility
57 C
55 C
TD react
69 B
85 A
Chin
77 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
34%
Submission
39%
Decision
27%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

31%

R2

20%

R3

22%

Dist

27%

Most likely: Round 1. Expected 9 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Fight IQ

    D 46 vs B 69 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Magomedov

  • Striking efficiency

    61% vs 41%

    Baghdasaryan

  • Striking differential

    2.20 vs 2.92 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Magomedov

  • Counter punching

    47 vs 28

    Baghdasaryan

  • Damage ratio

    1.77 vs 2.10 landed/absorbed

    Magomedov

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Magomedov

  • Ground game (tape)

    12 vs 21

    Magomedov

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Magomedov

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Baghdasaryan

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Baghdasaryan

  • Output (SLpM)

    5.04 vs 5.57

    Magomedov

  • Age-adjusted curve

    34 vs 26

    Magomedov

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Magomedov

  • Striking defense

    58% vs 57%

    Baghdasaryan

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs B

    Magomedov

  • Reach / length

    70.0" vs 70.5"

    Magomedov

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Baghdasaryan

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Magomedov

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Baghdasaryan

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 85% vs 85%

    Baghdasaryan

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Baghdasaryan

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Baghdasaryan

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Baghdasaryan

Tape

BaghdasaryanMetricMagomedov
5.04SLpM5.57
2.84SApM2.65
61%Str Acc41%
58%Str Def57%
0.00TD Avg0.00
0%TD Acc0%
85%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.23KD/150.25
5'10"Reach5'11"
34Age26

Melsik Baghdasaryan

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Murtazali Magomedov

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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