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UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2 · Women's Bantamweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Karol Rosa 64% · Decision · Distance · scored miss (Luana Santos / Decision - Unanimous)

Karol Rosa vs Luana Santos

Karol Rosa
BrazilBrazil

Karol Rosa

Unranked · 19-8 · striker · Orthodox · 31 · IQ C 60

GAEA Project · Brazil

VS
Luana Santos
BrazilBrazil

Luana Santos

Unranked · 11-2 · hybrid · Orthodox · 26 · IQ B+ 77

Syndicate MMA · Brazil

Karol Rosa

64.0%

Luana Santos

36.0%

Model win probability · confidence 58%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Rosa 64 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Karol Rosa is the model side at 64.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Santos (ground 58) into Rosa (TD reaction 60). Ground game is the clearest separator: Santos 58 (C) vs Rosa 34 (D). Santos brings 2.1 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Rosa's 81% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Santos

    Santos 58 (C) vs Rosa 34 (D). Santos brings 2.1 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Rosa's 81% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Rosa

    Rosa 74 (B) vs Santos 57 (C). Hand speed / output lean Rosa (5.5 SLpM at 68%).

  3. 03

    Fight IQ

    Santos

    Santos 77 (B+) vs Rosa 60 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Santos (B+ vs C).

  4. 04

    Counter punching

    Santos

    Santos 57 (C) vs Rosa 48 (D). Santos's return is the live one (0.22 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Rosa's entries.

Path · Rosa

Rosa has to stuff the first takedown (60 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 62 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Santos

Santos has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Rosa defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Rosa is built as: Volume pressure striker. Santos is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is -17 toward Santos — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Santos 58 (C) vs Rosa 34 (D). Santos brings 2.1 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Rosa's 81% takedown defense. Punching agility: Rosa 74 (B) vs Santos 57 (C). Hand speed / output lean Rosa (5.5 SLpM at 68%). Fight IQ: Santos 77 (B+) vs Rosa 60 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Santos (B+ vs C).

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (59%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

RosaTraitSantos
60 C
IQ
77 B+
34 D
Ground
58 C
69 B
Defense
62 C+
48 D
Counter
57 C
63 C+
Reaction
63 C+
74 B
Agility
57 C
60 C
TD react
66 C+
85 A
Chin
79 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
20%
Submission
21%
Decision
59%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

17%

R2

11%

R3

13%

Dist

59%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.7 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Santos (ground 58) into Rosa (TD reaction 60).

  • Striking differential

    2.78 vs -1.18 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Rosa

  • Damage ratio

    2.03 vs 0.68 landed/absorbed

    Rosa

  • Ground game (tape)

    34 vs 58

    Santos

  • Output (SLpM)

    5.47 vs 2.53

    Rosa

  • Fight IQ

    C 60 vs B+ 77 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Santos

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Santos

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Rosa

  • Striking defense

    57% vs 63%

    Santos

  • Counter punching

    48 vs 57

    Santos

  • Takedown reaction

    81% vs 76% hips on the shot

    Santos

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    B vs C+

    Rosa

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Santos (ground 58) into Rosa (TD reaction 60).

    Santos

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Santos

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Rosa

  • Striking efficiency

    68% vs 70%

    Santos

  • Age-adjusted curve

    31 vs 26

    Santos

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Rosa

  • Reach / length

    67.5" vs 67.0"

    Rosa

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 81% vs 76%

    Rosa

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Rosa

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Rosa

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Rosa

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Rosa

Tape

RosaMetricSantos
5.47SLpM2.53
2.69SApM3.71
68%Str Acc70%
57%Str Def63%
1.08TD Avg2.14
48%TD Acc38%
81%TD Def76%
0.15Sub Avg0.97
0.10KD/150.22
5'8"Reach5'7"
31Age26

Karol Rosa

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Luana Santos

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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