OctagonEdge

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · Women's Flyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Wang Cong 78% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Wang Cong / Decision - Unanimous)

Tracy Cortez vs Wang Cong

Tracy Cortez
USAUSA

Tracy Cortez

Unranked · 12-4 · striker · Orthodox · 32 · IQ C 56

Fight Ready · USA

VS
Wang Cong
ChinaChina

Wang Cong

“The Joker”

Unranked · 10-1 · striker · Southpaw · 34 · IQ C+ 62

Team Alpha Male · China

Tracy Cortez

22.1%

Wang Cong

77.9%

Model win probability · confidence 74%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Cong 78 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Wang Cong is the model side at 77.9% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Cong 79 (B+) vs Cortez 54 (C). Hand speed / output lean Cong (6.8 SLpM at 64%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Cong

    Cong 79 (B+) vs Cortez 54 (C). Hand speed / output lean Cong (6.8 SLpM at 64%).

  2. 02

    Striking defense

    Cong

    Cong 73 (B) vs Cortez 65 (C+). Cong absorbs 2.21/min at 54% defense; Cortez is a softer target at 3.22 SApM.

  3. 03

    Fight IQ

    Cong

    Cong 62 (C+) vs Cortez 56 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Cong (C+ vs C).

  4. 04

    Counter punching

    Cortez

    Cortez 46 (D) vs Cong 41 (D). Cortez's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Cong's entries.

Path · Cortez

Cortez wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Cong a long look at durability.

Path · Cong

Volume. Cong wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Cortez a clean reset.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Cortez attacking counter punching with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Cong is built as: Volume pressure striker — suspect hips against the shot, southpaw. Cortez is built as: Pocket striker — suspect hips against the shot. Fight IQ delta is +6 toward Cong — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Cong 79 (B+) vs Cortez 54 (C). Hand speed / output lean Cong (6.8 SLpM at 64%). Striking defense: Cong 73 (B) vs Cortez 65 (C+). Cong absorbs 2.21/min at 54% defense; Cortez is a softer target at 3.22 SApM. Fight IQ: Cong 62 (C+) vs Cortez 56 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Cong (C+ vs C).

The finish path leans strikes (29% KO/TKO vs 24% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Cortez attacking counter punching with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

CortezTraitCong
56 C
IQ
62 C+
42 D
Ground
42 D
65 C+
Defense
73 B
46 D
Counter
41 D
62 C+
Reaction
63 C+
54 C
Agility
79 B+
52 C
TD react
54 C
85 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
29%
Submission
24%
Decision
47%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

22%

R2

15%

R3

17%

Dist

47%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.7 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    0.73 vs 4.61 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Cong

  • Damage ratio

    1.23 vs 3.09 landed/absorbed

    Cong

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.95 vs 6.82

    Cong

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Cong

  • Fight IQ

    C 56 vs C+ 62 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Cong

  • Striking defense

    60% vs 54%

    Cortez

  • Striking efficiency

    56% vs 64%

    Cong

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs B

    Cong

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Cong

  • Counter punching

    46 vs 41

    Cortez

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Cong

  • Takedown reaction

    77% vs 83% hips on the shot

    Cong

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Cortez

  • Age-adjusted curve

    32 vs 34

    Cortez

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 77% vs 83%

    Cong

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Cortez

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Cong

  • Ground game (tape)

    42 vs 42

    Cong

  • Reach / length

    65.5" vs 65.5"

    Cortez

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Cortez

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Cortez

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Cortez

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Cortez

Tape

CortezMetricCong
3.95SLpM6.82
3.22SApM2.21
56%Str Acc64%
60%Str Def54%
2.04TD Avg0.62
40%TD Acc75%
77%TD Def83%
0.29Sub Avg0.62
0.10KD/150.25
5'6"Reach5'6"
32Age34

Tracy Cortez

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Wang Cong

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

Desk briefing

Sign in to request a written analyst note on this fight.