OctagonEdge

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · Middleweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Damian Pinas 77% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Damian Pinas / KO/TKO)

Damian Pinas vs Cesar Almeida

Damian Pinas
ArubaAruba

Damian Pinas

“The Baba Yaga”

Unranked · 10-1 · striker · Orthodox · 24 · IQ C+ 67

Nova Uniao · Aruba

VS
Cesar Almeida
BrazilBrazil

Cesar Almeida

“Cesinha”

Unranked · 7-3 · striker · Orthodox · 38 · IQ C+ 63

Teixeira MMA & Fitness · Brazil

Damian Pinas

76.8%

Cesar Almeida

23.2%

Model win probability · confidence 73%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Pinas 77 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Damian Pinas is the model side at 76.8% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Pinas 81 (B+) vs Almeida 60 (C). Hand speed / output lean Pinas (6.3 SLpM at 66%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Pinas

    Pinas 81 (B+) vs Almeida 60 (C). Hand speed / output lean Pinas (6.3 SLpM at 66%).

  2. 02

    Counter punching

    Almeida

    Almeida 64 (C+) vs Pinas 49 (D). Almeida's return is the live one (0.56 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Pinas's entries.

  3. 03

    Striking defense

    Pinas

    Pinas 73 (B) vs Almeida 64 (C+). Pinas absorbs 2.38/min at 55% defense; Almeida is a softer target at 3.39 SApM.

  4. 04

    Fight IQ

    Pinas

    Pinas 67 (C+) vs Almeida 63 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Pinas (C+ vs C+).

Path · Pinas

Volume. Pinas wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Almeida a clean reset.

Path · Almeida

Almeida wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Pinas a long look at durability.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Almeida attacking ground game with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Pinas is built as: Volume pressure striker. Almeida is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is +4 toward Pinas — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Pinas 81 (B+) vs Almeida 60 (C). Hand speed / output lean Pinas (6.3 SLpM at 66%). Counter punching: Almeida 64 (C+) vs Pinas 49 (D). Almeida's return is the live one (0.56 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Pinas's entries. Striking defense: Pinas 73 (B) vs Almeida 64 (C+). Pinas absorbs 2.38/min at 55% defense; Almeida is a softer target at 3.39 SApM.

The finish path leans strikes (43% KO/TKO vs 11% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Almeida attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

PinasTraitAlmeida
67 C+
IQ
63 C+
14 D
Ground
14 D
73 B
Defense
64 C+
49 D
Counter
64 C+
68 C+
Reaction
64 C+
81 B+
Agility
60 C
69 B
TD react
69 B
85 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
43%
Submission
11%
Decision
46%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

25%

R2

14%

R3

14%

Dist

46%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.4 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

  • Striking differential

    3.95 vs 0.07 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Pinas

  • Damage ratio

    2.66 vs 1.02 landed/absorbed

    Pinas

  • Output (SLpM)

    6.33 vs 3.46

    Pinas

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Pinas

  • Counter punching

    49 vs 64

    Almeida

  • Reach / length

    79.5" vs 74.0"

    Pinas

  • Striking defense

    55% vs 61%

    Almeida

  • Age-adjusted curve

    24 vs 38

    Pinas

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    B vs C+

    Pinas

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 67 vs C+ 63 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Pinas

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Pinas

  • Striking efficiency

    66% vs 69%

    Almeida

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Pinas

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Almeida

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Pinas

  • Ground game (tape)

    14 vs 14

    Almeida

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 85% vs 85%

    Pinas

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Pinas

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

    Pinas

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Pinas

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Pinas

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Pinas

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Pinas

Tape

PinasMetricAlmeida
6.33SLpM3.46
2.38SApM3.39
66%Str Acc69%
55%Str Def61%
0.00TD Avg0.00
0%TD Acc0%
85%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.21
0.51KD/150.56
6'8"Reach6'2"
24Age38

Damian Pinas

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Cesar Almeida

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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