OctagonEdge

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · Featherweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Kai Kamaka III 52% · Decision · Distance · scored miss (Luke Riley / KO/TKO)

Luke Riley vs Kai Kamaka III

Luke Riley
EnglandEngland

Luke Riley

Unranked · 14-0 · striker · Orthodox · 27 · IQ C+ 66

Next Generation UK · England

VS
Kai Kamaka III
USAUSA

Kai Kamaka III

“The Fighting Hawaiian”

Unranked · 18-8-1 · striker · Orthodox · 31 · IQ C+ 61

Xtreme Couture · USA

Luke Riley

48.3%

Kai Kamaka III

51.7%

Model win probability · confidence 44%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Kamaka III 52 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Kai Kamaka III is the model side at 51.7% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: III (ground 39) into Riley (TD reaction 69). Ground game is the clearest separator: Kamaka III 39 (D) vs Riley 12 (D). Kamaka III brings 1.5 TD/15 and 1 sub wins into Riley's 85% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    III

    Kamaka III 39 (D) vs Riley 12 (D). Kamaka III brings 1.5 TD/15 and 1 sub wins into Riley's 85% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Timing & reaction

    Riley

    Riley 68 (B) vs Kamaka III 62 (C+). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Riley.

  3. 03

    Fight IQ

    Riley

    Riley 66 (C+) vs Kamaka III 61 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Riley (C+ vs C+).

  4. 04

    Takedown reaction

    Riley

    Riley 69 (B) vs Kamaka III 67 (C+). When the shot comes, Riley stuffs it at 85% — Kamaka III is at 79%.

Path · Riley

Riley has to stuff the first takedown (69 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 69 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · III

Kamaka III has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Riley defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Kamaka III is built as: Volume pressure striker. Riley is built as: Volume pressure striker. Fight IQ delta is -5 toward Riley — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Kamaka III 39 (D) vs Riley 12 (D). Kamaka III brings 1.5 TD/15 and 1 sub wins into Riley's 85% takedown defense. Timing & reaction: Riley 68 (B) vs Kamaka III 62 (C+). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Riley. Fight IQ: Riley 66 (C+) vs Kamaka III 61 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Riley (C+ vs C+).

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (61%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

RileyTraitIII
66 C+
IQ
61 C+
12 D
Ground
39 D
70 B
Defense
69 B
46 D
Counter
46 D
68 B
Reaction
62 C+
72 B
Agility
71 B
69 B
TD react
67 C+
85 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
20%
Submission
19%
Decision
61%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

16%

R2

11%

R3

12%

Dist

61%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.8 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: III (ground 39) into Riley (TD reaction 69).

  • Ground game (tape)

    12 vs 39

    III

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    III

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Riley

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 66 vs C+ 61 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Riley

  • Striking differential

    2.91 vs 2.69 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Riley

  • Striking efficiency

    59% vs 64%

    III

  • Damage ratio

    2.10 vs 1.99 landed/absorbed

    Riley

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Riley

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: III (ground 39) into Riley (TD reaction 69).

    III

  • Age-adjusted curve

    27 vs 31

    Riley

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 79% hips on the shot

    Riley

  • Output (SLpM)

    5.56 vs 5.40

    Riley

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 85% vs 79%

    Riley

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Riley

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    B vs B

    Riley

  • Striking defense

    57% vs 57%

    III

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Riley

  • Reach / length

    69.0" vs 69.0"

    Riley

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Riley

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Riley

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Riley

  • Counter punching

    46 vs 46

    Riley

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Riley

Tape

RileyMetricIII
5.56SLpM5.40
2.65SApM2.71
59%Str Acc64%
57%Str Def57%
0.00TD Avg1.51
0%TD Acc54%
85%TD Def79%
0.00Sub Avg0.22
0.40KD/150.10
5'9"Reach5'9"
27Age31

Luke Riley

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Kai Kamaka III

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

Desk briefing

Sign in to request a written analyst note on this fight.