OctagonEdge

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · Light Heavyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Nikita Krylov 69% · KO/TKO · Round 1 · scored miss (Robert Whittaker / KO/TKO)

Nikita Krylov vs Robert Whittaker

Nikita Krylov
RussiaRussia

Nikita Krylov

“The Miner”

Unranked · 31-12 · striker · Orthodox · 34 · IQ C+ 61

Raty Team · Russia

VS
Robert Whittaker
AustraliaAustralia

Robert Whittaker

“The Reaper”

#2 · 28-9 · striker · Orthodox · 35 · IQ C+ 62

Gracie Jiu-Jitsu Smeaton Grange · Australia

Nikita Krylov

68.8%

Robert Whittaker

31.2%

Model win probability · confidence 65%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Krylov 69 — the tape favors pocket striker

Nikita Krylov is the model side at 68.8% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Krylov (ground 62) into Whittaker (TD reaction 66). Ground game is the clearest separator: Krylov 62 (C+) vs Whittaker 27 (D). Krylov brings 2.2 TD/15 and 16 sub wins into Whittaker's 87% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Krylov

    Krylov 62 (C+) vs Whittaker 27 (D). Krylov brings 2.2 TD/15 and 16 sub wins into Whittaker's 87% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Takedown reaction

    Whittaker

    Whittaker 66 (C+) vs Krylov 52 (C). When the shot comes, Whittaker stuffs it at 87% — Krylov is at 76%.

  3. 03

    Punching agility

    Krylov

    Krylov 66 (C+) vs Whittaker 55 (C). Hand speed / output lean Krylov (4.4 SLpM at 65%).

  4. 04

    Durability

    Krylov

    Krylov 77 (B+) vs Whittaker 69 (B). Krylov has been finished by strikes 0 times; Whittaker 0.

Path · Krylov

Krylov has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Whittaker defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

Path · Whittaker

Whittaker has to stuff the first takedown (66 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 66 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Krylov is built as: Pocket striker — suspect hips against the shot. Whittaker is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is -2 toward Whittaker — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Krylov 62 (C+) vs Whittaker 27 (D). Krylov brings 2.2 TD/15 and 16 sub wins into Whittaker's 87% takedown defense. Takedown reaction: Whittaker 66 (C+) vs Krylov 52 (C). When the shot comes, Whittaker stuffs it at 87% — Krylov is at 76%. Punching agility: Krylov 66 (C+) vs Whittaker 55 (C). Hand speed / output lean Krylov (4.4 SLpM at 65%).

The finish path leans strikes (39% KO/TKO vs 38% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

KrylovTraitWhittaker
61 C+
IQ
62 C+
62 C+
Ground
27 D
66 C+
Defense
64 C+
55 C
Counter
52 C
61 C+
Reaction
65 C+
66 C+
Agility
55 C
52 C
TD react
66 C+
77 B+
Chin
69 B

Method of victory

KO / TKO
39%
Submission
38%
Decision
23%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

39%

R2

20%

R3

18%

Dist

23%

Most likely: Round 1. Expected 8.1 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Krylov (ground 62) into Whittaker (TD reaction 66).

  • Ground game (tape)

    62 vs 27

    Krylov

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/1 UFC rows

    Krylov

  • Striking efficiency

    65% vs 46%

    Krylov

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Krylov

  • Striking differential

    1.31 vs 0.74 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Krylov

  • Takedown reaction

    76% vs 87% hips on the shot

    Whittaker

  • Striking defense

    59% vs 52%

    Krylov

  • Reach / length

    77.5" vs 73.5"

    Krylov

  • Output (SLpM)

    4.38 vs 3.62

    Krylov

  • Damage ratio

    1.43 vs 1.26 landed/absorbed

    Krylov

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Krylov

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Whittaker

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 68

    Whittaker

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Krylov

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Krylov (ground 62) into Whittaker (TD reaction 66).

    Krylov

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Whittaker

  • Counter punching

    55 vs 52

    Krylov

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 61 vs C+ 62 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Whittaker

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Krylov

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 76% vs 84%

    Whittaker

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Krylov

  • Age-adjusted curve

    34 vs 35

    Krylov

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Krylov

Tape

KrylovMetricWhittaker
4.38SLpM4.41
3.07SApM2.68
65%Str Acc46%
59%Str Def54%
2.19TD Avg0.71
38%TD Acc38%
76%TD Def87%
1.14Sub Avg0.00
0.33KD/150.60
6'6"Reach6'2"
34Age35

Nikita Krylov

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Robert Whittaker

L

Reinier de Ridder

Decision - Split · R5 5:00

Jul 26, 2025

Your pick

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