UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · Flyweight · 3 rounds
Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Lone'er Kavanagh 63% · Decision · Distance · scored miss (Brandon Royval / Submission)
Brandon Royval vs Lone'er Kavanagh
USABrandon Royval
“Raw Dawg”
#9 · 18-9 · striker · Southpaw · 34 · IQ C 57
FactoryX Muay Thai · USA
EnglandLone'er Kavanagh
Unranked · 10-2 · striker · Orthodox · 27 · IQ C 56
Great Britain Top Team · England
Brandon Royval
37.1%
Lone'er Kavanagh
62.9%
Model win probability · confidence 61%
No market posted yet.
Why the model leans this way
Kavanagh 63 — the tape favors pocket striker
Lone'er Kavanagh is the model side at 62.9% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Royval (ground 55) into Kavanagh (TD reaction 54). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Timing & reaction is the clearest separator: Kavanagh 65 (C+) vs Royval 18 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Kavanagh.
- 01
Timing & reaction
KavanaghKavanagh 65 (C+) vs Royval 18 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Kavanagh.
- 02
Striking defense
KavanaghKavanagh 66 (C+) vs Royval 31 (D). Kavanagh absorbs 3.15/min at 60% defense; Royval is a softer target at 6.32 SApM.
- 03
Takedown reaction
KavanaghKavanagh 54 (C) vs Royval 28 (D). When the shot comes, Kavanagh stuffs it at 81% — Royval is at 42%.
- 04
Ground game
RoyvalRoyval 55 (C) vs Kavanagh 34 (D). Royval brings 0.9 TD/15 and 10 sub wins into Kavanagh's 81% takedown defense.
Path · Royval
Royval has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Kavanagh defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.
Path · Kavanagh
Kavanagh has to stuff the first takedown (54 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 31 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.
A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.
Full read
Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Kavanagh is built as: Pocket striker — suspect hips against the shot. Royval is built as: Volume pressure striker — suspect hips against the shot, porous pocket, southpaw. Fight IQ delta is -1 toward Royval — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.
The edges that move the number. Timing & reaction: Kavanagh 65 (C+) vs Royval 18 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Kavanagh. Striking defense: Kavanagh 66 (C+) vs Royval 31 (D). Kavanagh absorbs 3.15/min at 60% defense; Royval is a softer target at 6.32 SApM. Takedown reaction: Kavanagh 54 (C) vs Royval 28 (D). When the shot comes, Kavanagh stuffs it at 81% — Royval is at 42%.
The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (50%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.
Style & IQ board
Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.
Method of victory
Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.
Duration
R1
21%
R2
14%
R3
16%
Dist
50%
Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.9 minutes.
Style matchup
Grappler historical edge: Royval (ground 55) into Kavanagh (TD reaction 54). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
Striking defense
38% vs 60%
KavanaghOutput (SLpM)
7.63 vs 4.13
RoyvalPocket defense (tape)
D vs C+
KavanaghTiming & reaction
Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy
KavanaghTakedown reaction
42% vs 81% hips on the shot
KavanaghGround game (tape)
55 vs 34
RoyvalRecency form
Opp.-adjusted last 3/0 UFC rows
KavanaghCounter punching
27 vs 45
KavanaghStriking efficiency
45% vs 53%
KavanaghStriking differential
1.25 vs 0.98 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)
RoyvalStrength of schedule
Opp. quality 73 vs 50
RoyvalStyle interaction
Grappler historical edge: Royval (ground 55) into Kavanagh (TD reaction 54). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
RoyvalPunching agility
Output × accuracy × age curve
KavanaghDurability
0 vs 0 KO losses
KavanaghTakedown mismatch
TD def 41% vs 81%
KavanaghDamage ratio
1.20 vs 1.31 landed/absorbed
KavanaghAge-adjusted curve
34 vs 27
KavanaghReach / length
68.0" vs 67.0"
RoyvalFight IQ
C 57 vs C 56 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments
RoyvalCardio proxy
Output sustainability + distance rate
RoyvalGrappling composite
TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)
KavanaghLayoff / rust
Time since last fight
KavanaghChampionship / 5-round
Three-round fight
Royval
Tape
Brandon Royval
Joshua Van
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Brandon Moreno
Decision - Split · R5 5:00
Alexandre Pantoja
Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00
Lone'er Kavanagh
No recent UFC tape in the book.
Your pick
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