OctagonEdge

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · Bantamweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Mario Bautista 63% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Mario Bautista / Decision - Unanimous)

Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista

Cory Sandhagen
USAUSA

Cory Sandhagen

#3 · 18-7 · striker · Switch · 34 · IQ B 70

Elevation Fight Team · USA

VS
Mario Bautista
USAUSA

Mario Bautista

Unranked · 18-3 · striker · Switch · 33 · IQ C+ 68

MMA LAB · USA

Cory Sandhagen

37.5%

Mario Bautista

62.5%

Model win probability · confidence 60%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Bautista 63 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Mario Bautista is the model side at 62.5% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Bautista (ground 61) into Sandhagen (TD reaction 45). Ground game is the clearest separator: Bautista 61 (C+) vs Sandhagen 32 (D). Bautista brings 2.5 TD/15 and 7 sub wins into Sandhagen's 63% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Bautista

    Bautista 61 (C+) vs Sandhagen 32 (D). Bautista brings 2.5 TD/15 and 7 sub wins into Sandhagen's 63% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Timing & reaction

    Bautista

    Bautista 61 (C+) vs Sandhagen 48 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Bautista.

  3. 03

    Takedown reaction

    Bautista

    Bautista 55 (C) vs Sandhagen 45 (D). When the shot comes, Bautista stuffs it at 75% — Sandhagen is at 63%.

  4. 04

    Punching agility

    Bautista

    Bautista 64 (C+) vs Sandhagen 56 (C). Hand speed / output lean Bautista (5.5 SLpM at 56%).

Path · Sandhagen

Sandhagen has to stuff the first takedown (45 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 70 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Bautista

Bautista has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Sandhagen defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Bautista is built as: Volume pressure striker. Sandhagen is built as: Pocket striker — suspect hips against the shot. Fight IQ delta is -2 toward Sandhagen — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Bautista 61 (C+) vs Sandhagen 32 (D). Bautista brings 2.5 TD/15 and 7 sub wins into Sandhagen's 63% takedown defense. Timing & reaction: Bautista 61 (C+) vs Sandhagen 48 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Bautista. Takedown reaction: Bautista 55 (C) vs Sandhagen 45 (D). When the shot comes, Bautista stuffs it at 75% — Sandhagen is at 63%.

The finish path leans the mat (35% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

SandhagenTraitBautista
70 B
IQ
68 C+
32 D
Ground
61 C+
65 C+
Defense
70 B
44 D
Counter
39 D
48 D
Reaction
61 C+
56 C
Agility
64 C+
45 D
TD react
55 C
79 B+
Chin
81 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
24%
Submission
35%
Decision
40%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

26%

R2

16%

R3

17%

Dist

40%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Bautista (ground 61) into Sandhagen (TD reaction 45).

  • Ground game (tape)

    32 vs 61

    Bautista

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Bautista

  • Striking differential

    2.33 vs 2.85 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Bautista

  • Takedown reaction

    63% vs 75% hips on the shot

    Bautista

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 79 vs 50

    Sandhagen

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Bautista

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 3/0 UFC rows

    Sandhagen

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Bautista (ground 61) into Sandhagen (TD reaction 45).

    Bautista

  • Striking efficiency

    50% vs 56%

    Bautista

  • Damage ratio

    1.91 vs 2.07 landed/absorbed

    Bautista

  • Output (SLpM)

    4.89 vs 5.52

    Bautista

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Bautista

  • Counter punching

    44 vs 39

    Sandhagen

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Sandhagen

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs B

    Bautista

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 65% vs 75%

    Bautista

  • Fight IQ

    B 70 vs C+ 68 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Sandhagen

  • Striking defense

    55% vs 57%

    Bautista

  • Reach / length

    70.0" vs 69.0"

    Sandhagen

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Bautista

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Bautista

  • Age-adjusted curve

    34 vs 33

    Bautista

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Sandhagen

Tape

SandhagenMetricBautista
4.92SLpM5.52
2.70SApM2.67
51%Str Acc56%
54%Str Def57%
1.14TD Avg2.49
34%TD Acc39%
63%TD Def75%
0.24Sub Avg1.06
0.00KD/150.13
5'10"Reach5'9"
34Age33

Cory Sandhagen

W

Deiveson Figueiredo

KO/TKO · R2 4:08

May 4, 2025
L

Umar Nurmagomedov

Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00

Aug 3, 2024
W

Marlon Vera

Decision - Split · R5 5:00

Mar 25, 2023

Mario Bautista

No recent UFC tape in the book.

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