UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · Lightweight · 3 rounds
Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Benoît Saint Denis 62% · Submission · Round 1 · scored miss (Paddy Pimblett / Submission)
Benoît Saint Denis vs Paddy Pimblett
FranceBenoît Saint Denis
“God of War”
Unranked · 17-4 · striker · Southpaw · 30 · IQ B 69
CYFIT · France
EnglandPaddy Pimblett
“The Baddy”
Unranked · 24-4 · striker · Orthodox · 31 · IQ B 69
Next Generation MMA Liverpool · England
Benoît Saint Denis
61.7%
Paddy Pimblett
38.3%
Model win probability · confidence 56%
No market posted yet.
Why the model leans this way
Saint Denis 62 — the tape favors volume pressure striker
Benoît Saint Denis is the model side at 61.7% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Denis (ground 83) into Pimblett (TD reaction 60). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Saint Denis 83 (A) vs Pimblett 47 (D). Saint Denis brings 4.2 TD/15 and 11 sub wins into Pimblett's 82% takedown defense.
- 01
Ground game
DenisSaint Denis 83 (A) vs Pimblett 47 (D). Saint Denis brings 4.2 TD/15 and 11 sub wins into Pimblett's 82% takedown defense.
- 02
Counter punching
DenisSaint Denis 55 (C) vs Pimblett 42 (D). Saint Denis's return is the live one (0.64 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Pimblett's entries.
- 03
Punching agility
DenisSaint Denis 81 (B+) vs Pimblett 68 (B). Hand speed / output lean Saint Denis (5.6 SLpM at 66%).
- 04
Durability
PimblettPimblett 79 (B+) vs Saint Denis 73 (B). Pimblett has been finished by strikes 0 times; Saint Denis 0.
Path · Denis
Saint Denis has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Pimblett defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.
Path · Pimblett
Pimblett has to stuff the first takedown (60 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 70 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.
A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.
Full read
Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Saint Denis is built as: Volume pressure striker — southpaw. Pimblett is built as: Volume pressure striker. Fight IQ delta is +0 toward Saint Denis — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.
The edges that move the number. Ground game: Saint Denis 83 (A) vs Pimblett 47 (D). Saint Denis brings 4.2 TD/15 and 11 sub wins into Pimblett's 82% takedown defense. Counter punching: Saint Denis 55 (C) vs Pimblett 42 (D). Saint Denis's return is the live one (0.64 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Pimblett's entries. Punching agility: Saint Denis 81 (B+) vs Pimblett 68 (B). Hand speed / output lean Saint Denis (5.6 SLpM at 66%).
The finish path leans the mat (49% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.
Style & IQ board
Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.
Method of victory
Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.
Duration
R1
40%
R2
24%
R3
25%
Dist
12%
Most likely: Round 1. Expected 7.6 minutes.
Style matchup
Grappler historical edge: Denis (ground 83) into Pimblett (TD reaction 60). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
Ground game (tape)
83 vs 47
DenisGrappling composite
TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)
DenisCounter punching
55 vs 42
DenisStriking efficiency
66% vs 58%
DenisPunching agility
Output × accuracy × age curve
DenisStyle interaction
Grappler historical edge: Denis (ground 83) into Pimblett (TD reaction 60). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
DenisTakedown reaction
68% vs 82% hips on the shot
PimblettStriking differential
2.93 vs 2.80 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)
DenisDurability
0 vs 0 KO losses
PimblettDamage ratio
2.11 vs 2.04 landed/absorbed
DenisTakedown mismatch
TD def 68% vs 82%
PimblettRecency form
Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows
PimblettOutput (SLpM)
5.58 vs 5.48
DenisTiming & reaction
Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy
PimblettAge-adjusted curve
30 vs 31
DenisStriking defense
57% vs 57%
PimblettPocket defense (tape)
B vs B
DenisCardio proxy
Output sustainability + distance rate
DenisReach / length
73.0" vs 73.0"
DenisStrength of schedule
Opp. quality 50 vs 50
DenisLayoff / rust
Time since last fight
DenisChampionship / 5-round
Three-round fight
DenisFight IQ
B 69 vs B 69 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments
Denis
Tape
Benoît Saint Denis
No recent UFC tape in the book.
Paddy Pimblett
No recent UFC tape in the book.
Your pick
Desk briefing
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