UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · Middleweight · 3 rounds
Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Michal Oleksiejczuk 66% · KO/TKO · Distance · scored miss (Abus Magomedov / Submission)
Abus Magomedov vs Michal Oleksiejczuk
GermanyAbus Magomedov
Unranked · 29-7-1 · hybrid · Orthodox · 35 · IQ C+ 63
UFD Gym · Germany
PolandMichal Oleksiejczuk
“Hussar”
Unranked · 22-10 · striker · Southpaw · 31 · IQ D 47
Fighting Nerds · Poland
Abus Magomedov
33.5%
Michal Oleksiejczuk
66.5%
Model win probability · confidence 61%
No market posted yet.
Why the model leans this way
Oleksiejczuk 66 — the tape favors volume pressure striker
Michal Oleksiejczuk is the model side at 66.5% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Magomedov (ground 58) into Oleksiejczuk (TD reaction 54). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Oleksiejczuk 76 (B) vs Magomedov 43 (D). Hand speed / output lean Oleksiejczuk (5.8 SLpM at 56%).
- 01
Punching agility
OleksiejczukOleksiejczuk 76 (B) vs Magomedov 43 (D). Hand speed / output lean Oleksiejczuk (5.8 SLpM at 56%).
- 02
Ground game
MagomedovMagomedov 58 (C) vs Oleksiejczuk 28 (D). Magomedov brings 2.5 TD/15 and 8 sub wins into Oleksiejczuk's 81% takedown defense.
- 03
Fight IQ
MagomedovMagomedov 63 (C+) vs Oleksiejczuk 47 (D). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Magomedov (C+ vs D).
- 04
Timing & reaction
OleksiejczukOleksiejczuk 70 (B) vs Magomedov 58 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Oleksiejczuk.
Path · Magomedov
Magomedov has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Oleksiejczuk defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.
Path · Oleksiejczuk
Oleksiejczuk has to stuff the first takedown (54 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 63 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.
A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.
Full read
Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Oleksiejczuk is built as: Volume pressure striker — suspect hips against the shot, southpaw. Magomedov is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — suspect hips against the shot. Fight IQ delta is -16 toward Magomedov — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.
The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Oleksiejczuk 76 (B) vs Magomedov 43 (D). Hand speed / output lean Oleksiejczuk (5.8 SLpM at 56%). Ground game: Magomedov 58 (C) vs Oleksiejczuk 28 (D). Magomedov brings 2.5 TD/15 and 8 sub wins into Oleksiejczuk's 81% takedown defense. Fight IQ: Magomedov 63 (C+) vs Oleksiejczuk 47 (D). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Magomedov (C+ vs D).
The finish path leans strikes (41% KO/TKO vs 22% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.
Style & IQ board
Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.
Method of victory
Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.
Duration
R1
28%
R2
17%
R3
18%
Dist
36%
Most likely: Distance. Expected 9.6 minutes.
Style matchup
Grappler historical edge: Magomedov (ground 58) into Oleksiejczuk (TD reaction 54). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
Striking differential
-0.47 vs 3.30 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)
OleksiejczukDamage ratio
0.87 vs 2.29 landed/absorbed
OleksiejczukGround game (tape)
58 vs 28
MagomedovFight IQ
C+ 63 vs D 47 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments
MagomedovOutput (SLpM)
3.06 vs 5.85
OleksiejczukPunching agility
Output × accuracy × age curve
OleksiejczukGrappling composite
TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)
MagomedovStriking defense
62% vs 56%
MagomedovReach / length
78.0" vs 74.0"
MagomedovTiming & reaction
Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy
OleksiejczukStyle interaction
Grappler historical edge: Magomedov (ground 58) into Oleksiejczuk (TD reaction 54). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
MagomedovPocket defense (tape)
C+ vs B
OleksiejczukStriking efficiency
53% vs 56%
OleksiejczukRecency form
Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows
MagomedovCounter punching
43 vs 47
OleksiejczukCardio proxy
Output sustainability + distance rate
OleksiejczukAge-adjusted curve
35 vs 31
OleksiejczukTakedown reaction
75% vs 81% hips on the shot
OleksiejczukTakedown mismatch
TD def 75% vs 81%
OleksiejczukDurability
0 vs 0 KO losses
OleksiejczukStrength of schedule
Opp. quality 50 vs 50
MagomedovLayoff / rust
Time since last fight
MagomedovChampionship / 5-round
Three-round fight
Magomedov
Tape
Abus Magomedov
No recent UFC tape in the book.
Michal Oleksiejczuk
No recent UFC tape in the book.
Your pick
Desk briefing
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