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UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · Lightweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Nazim Sadykhov 67% · Submission · Distance · scored miss (Matheus Camilo / KO/TKO)

Nazim Sadykhov vs Matheus Camilo

Nazim Sadykhov
AzerbaijanAzerbaijan

Nazim Sadykhov

“Black Wolf”

Unranked · 11-3-1 · striker · Southpaw · 32 · IQ C+ 63

Serra-Longo Fight Team · Azerbaijan

VS
Matheus Camilo
BrazilBrazil

Matheus Camilo

“Jaguar”

Unranked · 11-3 · wrestler · Orthodox · 25 · IQ C 54

Xtreme Couture · Brazil

Nazim Sadykhov

66.9%

Matheus Camilo

33.1%

Model win probability · confidence 61%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Sadykhov 67 — the tape favors pocket striker

Nazim Sadykhov is the model side at 66.9% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Camilo (ground 72) into Sadykhov (TD reaction 57). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Camilo 72 (B) vs Sadykhov 35 (D). Camilo brings 4.4 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Sadykhov's 81% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Camilo

    Camilo 72 (B) vs Sadykhov 35 (D). Camilo brings 4.4 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Sadykhov's 81% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Sadykhov

    Sadykhov 62 (C+) vs Camilo 44 (D). Hand speed / output lean Sadykhov (4.8 SLpM at 55%).

  3. 03

    Fight IQ

    Sadykhov

    Sadykhov 63 (C+) vs Camilo 54 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Sadykhov (C+ vs C).

  4. 04

    Takedown reaction

    Sadykhov

    Sadykhov 57 (C) vs Camilo 49 (D). When the shot comes, Sadykhov stuffs it at 81% — Camilo is at 67%.

Path · Sadykhov

Sadykhov has to stuff the first takedown (57 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 62 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Camilo

Camilo has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Sadykhov defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Sadykhov is built as: Pocket striker — southpaw. Camilo is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — suspect hips against the shot. Fight IQ delta is +10 toward Sadykhov — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Camilo 72 (B) vs Sadykhov 35 (D). Camilo brings 4.4 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Sadykhov's 81% takedown defense. Punching agility: Sadykhov 62 (C+) vs Camilo 44 (D). Hand speed / output lean Sadykhov (4.8 SLpM at 55%). Fight IQ: Sadykhov 63 (C+) vs Camilo 54 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Sadykhov (C+ vs C).

The finish path leans the mat (39% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

SadykhovTraitCamilo
63 C+
IQ
54 C
35 D
Ground
72 B
67 C+
Defense
62 C+
46 D
Counter
43 D
66 C+
Reaction
59 C
62 C+
Agility
44 D
57 C
TD react
49 D
85 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
30%
Submission
39%
Decision
31%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

30%

R2

19%

R3

21%

Dist

31%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 9.3 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Camilo (ground 72) into Sadykhov (TD reaction 57). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    1.87 vs -1.64 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Sadykhov

  • Ground game (tape)

    35 vs 72

    Camilo

  • Damage ratio

    1.64 vs 0.57 landed/absorbed

    Sadykhov

  • Output (SLpM)

    4.79 vs 2.19

    Sadykhov

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Camilo

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 63 vs C 54 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Sadykhov

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Sadykhov

  • Striking defense

    58% vs 64%

    Camilo

  • Takedown reaction

    81% vs 67% hips on the shot

    Sadykhov

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Sadykhov

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Sadykhov

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Camilo (ground 72) into Sadykhov (TD reaction 57). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Camilo

  • Age-adjusted curve

    32 vs 25

    Camilo

  • Counter punching

    46 vs 43

    Sadykhov

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Sadykhov

  • Striking efficiency

    55% vs 53%

    Sadykhov

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 81% vs 67%

    Sadykhov

  • Reach / length

    69.0" vs 69.0"

    Sadykhov

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Sadykhov

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Sadykhov

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Sadykhov

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Sadykhov

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Sadykhov

Tape

SadykhovMetricCamilo
4.79SLpM2.19
2.92SApM3.83
55%Str Acc53%
58%Str Def64%
1.10TD Avg4.43
45%TD Acc54%
81%TD Def67%
0.22Sub Avg0.63
0.37KD/150.20
5'9"Reach5'9"
32Age25

Nazim Sadykhov

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Matheus Camilo

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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