UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · Middleweight · 3 rounds
Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Nursulton Ruziboev 55% · Submission · Distance · scored hit (Nursulton Ruziboev / Submission)
Nursulton Ruziboev vs Andrey Pulyaev
UzbekistanNursulton Ruziboev
“Black”
Unranked · 37-9-2 · hybrid · Orthodox · 32 · IQ C+ 64
Shahrixon MMA · Uzbekistan
RussiaAndrey Pulyaev
Unranked · 10-5 · striker · Southpaw · 28 · IQ C+ 65
Storm Shlemenko Fight Team · Russia
Nursulton Ruziboev
54.9%
Andrey Pulyaev
45.1%
Model win probability · confidence 55%
No market posted yet.
Why the model leans this way
Ruziboev 55 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels
Nursulton Ruziboev is the model side at 54.9% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Ruziboev (ground 50) into Pulyaev (TD reaction 62). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Ruziboev 50 (D) vs Pulyaev 18 (D). Ruziboev brings 1.4 TD/15 and 21 sub wins into Pulyaev's 84% takedown defense.
- 01
Ground game
RuziboevRuziboev 50 (D) vs Pulyaev 18 (D). Ruziboev brings 1.4 TD/15 and 21 sub wins into Pulyaev's 84% takedown defense.
- 02
Counter punching
PulyaevPulyaev 53 (C) vs Ruziboev 32 (D). Pulyaev's return is the live one (0.19 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Ruziboev's entries.
- 03
Durability
PulyaevPulyaev 85 (A) vs Ruziboev 69 (B). Pulyaev has been finished by strikes 0 times; Ruziboev 0.
- 04
Timing & reaction
PulyaevPulyaev 66 (C+) vs Ruziboev 54 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Pulyaev.
Path · Ruziboev
Ruziboev has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Pulyaev defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.
Path · Pulyaev
Pulyaev has to stuff the first takedown (62 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 66 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.
A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.
Full read
Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Ruziboev is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Pulyaev is built as: Pocket striker — southpaw. Fight IQ delta is -1 toward Pulyaev — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.
The edges that move the number. Ground game: Ruziboev 50 (D) vs Pulyaev 18 (D). Ruziboev brings 1.4 TD/15 and 21 sub wins into Pulyaev's 84% takedown defense. Counter punching: Pulyaev 53 (C) vs Ruziboev 32 (D). Pulyaev's return is the live one (0.19 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Ruziboev's entries. Durability: Pulyaev 85 (A) vs Ruziboev 69 (B). Pulyaev has been finished by strikes 0 times; Ruziboev 0.
The finish path leans the mat (38% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.
Style & IQ board
Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.
Method of victory
Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.
Duration
R1
28%
R2
18%
R3
21%
Dist
33%
Most likely: Distance. Expected 9.5 minutes.
Style matchup
Grappler historical edge: Ruziboev (ground 50) into Pulyaev (TD reaction 62). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
Ground game (tape)
50 vs 18
RuziboevStriking defense
42% vs 61%
PulyaevDamage ratio
1.80 vs 1.08 landed/absorbed
RuziboevRecency form
Opp.-adjusted last 6/0 UFC rows
RuziboevStriking differential
0.96 vs 0.26 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)
RuziboevGrappling composite
TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)
RuziboevCounter punching
32 vs 53
PulyaevStriking efficiency
49% vs 61%
PulyaevOutput (SLpM)
2.16 vs 3.60
PulyaevDurability
0 vs 0 KO losses
PulyaevCardio proxy
Output sustainability + distance rate
RuziboevTiming & reaction
Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy
PulyaevPunching agility
Output × accuracy × age curve
PulyaevStyle interaction
Grappler historical edge: Ruziboev (ground 50) into Pulyaev (TD reaction 62). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
RuziboevReach / length
76.0" vs 78.0"
PulyaevStrength of schedule
Opp. quality 61 vs 50
RuziboevAge-adjusted curve
32 vs 28
PulyaevFight IQ
C+ 64 vs C+ 65 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments
PulyaevTakedown mismatch
TD def 82% vs 84%
PulyaevTakedown reaction
80% vs 84% hips on the shot
RuziboevPocket defense (tape)
C+ vs C+
RuziboevLayoff / rust
Time since last fight
RuziboevChampionship / 5-round
Three-round fight
Ruziboev
Tape
Nursulton Ruziboev
Fighter 5211225
Submission · R1 3:58
Fighter 4685871
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Fighter 2478987
KO/TKO · R2 0:33
Fighter 4024714
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Fighter 5060467
KO/TKO · R1 3:18
Brunno Ferreira
KO/TKO · R1 1:17
Andrey Pulyaev
No recent UFC tape in the book.
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