UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · Middleweight · 3 rounds
Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Ikram Aliskerov 88% · KO/TKO · Distance · scored hit (Ikram Aliskerov / Decision - Unanimous)
Ikram Aliskerov vs Brunno Ferreira
RussiaIkram Aliskerov
Unranked · 18-2 · striker · Southpaw · 33 · IQ B+ 79
KHK MMA Team · Russia
BrazilBrunno Ferreira
“The Hulk”
Unranked · 15-4 · striker · Orthodox · 33 · IQ C+ 64
Brazilian TKO · Brazil
Ikram Aliskerov
88.4%
Brunno Ferreira
11.6%
Model win probability · confidence 86%
No market posted yet.
Why the model leans this way
Aliskerov 88 — the tape favors volume pressure striker
Ikram Aliskerov is the model side at 88.4% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Aliskerov (ground 72) into Ferreira (TD reaction 46). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Aliskerov 72 (B) vs Ferreira 41 (D). Aliskerov brings 3.8 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Ferreira's 67% takedown defense.
- 01
Ground game
AliskerovAliskerov 72 (B) vs Ferreira 41 (D). Aliskerov brings 3.8 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Ferreira's 67% takedown defense.
- 02
Punching agility
AliskerovAliskerov 76 (B) vs Ferreira 48 (D). Hand speed / output lean Aliskerov (5.6 SLpM at 67%).
- 03
Durability
AliskerovAliskerov 84 (A) vs Ferreira 64 (C+). Aliskerov has been finished by strikes 0 times; Ferreira 0.
- 04
Takedown reaction
AliskerovAliskerov 63 (C+) vs Ferreira 46 (D). When the shot comes, Aliskerov stuffs it at 70% — Ferreira is at 67%.
Path · Aliskerov
Aliskerov has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Ferreira defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.
Path · Ferreira
Ferreira has to stuff the first takedown (46 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 70 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.
This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Ferreira attacking counter punching with their best weapon.
Full read
Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Aliskerov is built as: Volume pressure striker — southpaw. Ferreira is built as: Power striker — suspect hips against the shot, porous pocket. Fight IQ delta is +15 toward Aliskerov — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.
The edges that move the number. Ground game: Aliskerov 72 (B) vs Ferreira 41 (D). Aliskerov brings 3.8 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Ferreira's 67% takedown defense. Punching agility: Aliskerov 76 (B) vs Ferreira 48 (D). Hand speed / output lean Aliskerov (5.6 SLpM at 67%). Durability: Aliskerov 84 (A) vs Ferreira 64 (C+). Aliskerov has been finished by strikes 0 times; Ferreira 0.
The finish path leans strikes (36% KO/TKO vs 29% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Ferreira attacking counter punching with their best weapon. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.
Style & IQ board
Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.
Method of victory
Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.
Duration
R1
30%
R2
17%
R3
18%
Dist
35%
Most likely: Distance. Expected 9.5 minutes.
Style matchup
Grappler historical edge: Aliskerov (ground 72) into Ferreira (TD reaction 46). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
Striking differential
2.91 vs -0.68 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)
AliskerovDamage ratio
2.10 vs 0.80 landed/absorbed
AliskerovGround game (tape)
72 vs 41
AliskerovOutput (SLpM)
5.56 vs 2.69
AliskerovFight IQ
B+ 79 vs C+ 64 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments
AliskerovStriking efficiency
67% vs 48%
AliskerovGrappling composite
TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)
AliskerovTakedown reaction
70% vs 67% hips on the shot
AliskerovRecency form
Opp.-adjusted last 0/7 UFC rows
AliskerovPunching agility
Output × accuracy × age curve
AliskerovPocket defense (tape)
B vs C
AliskerovDurability
0 vs 0 KO losses
AliskerovReach / length
76.0" vs 72.0"
AliskerovTiming & reaction
Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy
AliskerovStyle interaction
Grappler historical edge: Aliskerov (ground 72) into Ferreira (TD reaction 46). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
AliskerovStriking defense
57% vs 53%
AliskerovStrength of schedule
Opp. quality 50 vs 66
FerreiraTakedown mismatch
TD def 70% vs 66%
AliskerovCounter punching
52 vs 49
AliskerovCardio proxy
Output sustainability + distance rate
FerreiraLayoff / rust
Time since last fight
FerreiraAge-adjusted curve
33 vs 33
AliskerovChampionship / 5-round
Three-round fight
Aliskerov
Tape
Ikram Aliskerov
No recent UFC tape in the book.
Brunno Ferreira
Fighter 4684776
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Gregory Rodrigues
KO/TKO · R1 1:47
Marvin Vettori
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Jackson McVey
Submission · R1 3:35
Fighter 4894791
Submission · R2 4:27
Fighter 3077822
Submission · R3 3:14
Nursulton Ruziboev
KO/TKO · R1 1:17
Your pick
Desk briefing
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