OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · Light Heavyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 91% · Submission · Round 1 · scored hit (Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev / KO/TKO)

Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev vs Julius Walker

Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev
TürkiyeTürkiye

Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

“Hunter”

Unranked · 10-0 · striker · Orthodox · 25 · IQ B+ 82

MMA & Combat Nurnberg · Türkiye

VS
Julius Walker
USAUSA

Julius Walker

“Juice Box”

Unranked · 7-3 · hybrid · Orthodox · 27 · IQ B 70

Team Fusion · USA

Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

91.0%

Julius Walker

9.0%

Model win probability · confidence 86%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Yakhyaev 91 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev is the model side at 91.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Yakhyaev (ground 97) into Walker (TD reaction 63). Ground game is the clearest separator: Yakhyaev 97 (A+) vs Walker 58 (C). Yakhyaev brings 11.1 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Walker's 69% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Yakhyaev

    Yakhyaev 97 (A+) vs Walker 58 (C). Yakhyaev brings 11.1 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Walker's 69% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Yakhyaev

    Yakhyaev 90 (A) vs Walker 61 (C+). Hand speed / output lean Yakhyaev (8.6 SLpM at 70%).

  3. 03

    Takedown reaction

    Walker

    Walker 63 (C+) vs Yakhyaev 43 (D). When the shot comes, Walker stuffs it at 69% — Yakhyaev is at 41%.

  4. 04

    Fight IQ

    Yakhyaev

    Yakhyaev 82 (B+) vs Walker 70 (B). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Yakhyaev (B+ vs B).

Path · Yakhyaev

Yakhyaev has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Walker defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

Path · Walker

Walker has to stuff the first takedown (63 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 73 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Walker attacking takedown reaction with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Yakhyaev is built as: Volume pressure striker — high-IQ problem solver, suspect hips against the shot. Walker is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +12 toward Yakhyaev — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Yakhyaev 97 (A+) vs Walker 58 (C). Yakhyaev brings 11.1 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Walker's 69% takedown defense. Punching agility: Yakhyaev 90 (A) vs Walker 61 (C+). Hand speed / output lean Yakhyaev (8.6 SLpM at 70%). Takedown reaction: Walker 63 (C+) vs Yakhyaev 43 (D). When the shot comes, Walker stuffs it at 69% — Yakhyaev is at 41%.

The finish path leans the mat (49% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Walker attacking takedown reaction with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

YakhyaevTraitWalker
82 B+
IQ
70 B
97 A+
Ground
58 C
73 B
Defense
65 C+
46 D
Counter
54 C
54 C
Reaction
58 C
90 A
Agility
61 C+
43 D
TD react
63 C+
77 B+
Chin
84 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
40%
Submission
49%
Decision
11%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

39%

R2

24%

R3

26%

Dist

11%

Most likely: Round 1. Expected 7.6 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Yakhyaev (ground 97) into Walker (TD reaction 63).

  • Striking differential

    7.06 vs 0.44 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Yakhyaev

  • Damage ratio

    5.47 vs 1.13 landed/absorbed

    Yakhyaev

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Yakhyaev

  • Ground game (tape)

    97 vs 58

    Yakhyaev

  • Output (SLpM)

    8.64 vs 3.73

    Yakhyaev

  • Takedown reaction

    41% vs 69% hips on the shot

    Walker

  • Fight IQ

    B+ 82 vs B 70 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Yakhyaev

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Yakhyaev

  • Striking defense

    51% vs 61%

    Walker

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Yakhyaev

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    B vs C+

    Yakhyaev

  • Striking efficiency

    70% vs 64%

    Yakhyaev

  • Counter punching

    46 vs 54

    Walker

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Yakhyaev (ground 97) into Walker (TD reaction 63).

    Yakhyaev

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Walker

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 41% vs 69%

    Walker

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Yakhyaev

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Walker

  • Reach / length

    78.0" vs 78.0"

    Yakhyaev

  • Age-adjusted curve

    25 vs 27

    Yakhyaev

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Yakhyaev

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Yakhyaev

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Yakhyaev

Tape

YakhyaevMetricWalker
8.64SLpM3.73
1.58SApM3.29
70%Str Acc64%
51%Str Def61%
11.11TD Avg4.09
75%TD Acc38%
41%TD Def69%
7.41Sub Avg0.00
0.56KD/150.10
6'6"Reach6'6"
25Age27

Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Julius Walker

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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