OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · Middleweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Shara Magomedov 66% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Shara Magomedov / Decision - Unanimous)

Shara Magomedov vs Michel Pereira

Shara Magomedov
RussiaRussia

Shara Magomedov

“Bullet”

Unranked · 17-1 · striker · Orthodox · 32 · IQ B 69

GOR MMA · Russia

VS
Michel Pereira
BrazilBrazil

Michel Pereira

“Demolidor”

Unranked · 32-15 · striker · Orthodox · 32 · IQ C+ 63

Xtreme Couture · Brazil

Shara Magomedov

65.6%

Michel Pereira

34.4%

Model win probability · confidence 60%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Magomedov 66 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Shara Magomedov is the model side at 65.6% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Pereira (ground 44) into Magomedov (TD reaction 69). Ground game is the clearest separator: Pereira 44 (D) vs Magomedov 12 (D). Pereira brings 1.1 TD/15 and 9 sub wins into Magomedov's 85% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Pereira

    Pereira 44 (D) vs Magomedov 12 (D). Pereira brings 1.1 TD/15 and 9 sub wins into Magomedov's 85% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Magomedov

    Magomedov 78 (B+) vs Pereira 54 (C). Hand speed / output lean Magomedov (5.9 SLpM at 69%).

  3. 03

    Counter punching

    Magomedov

    Magomedov 50 (D) vs Pereira 43 (D). Magomedov's return is the live one (0.31 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Pereira's entries.

  4. 04

    Fight IQ

    Magomedov

    Magomedov 69 (B) vs Pereira 63 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Magomedov (B vs C+).

Path · Magomedov

Magomedov has to stuff the first takedown (69 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 66 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Pereira

Pereira has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Magomedov defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Magomedov is built as: Volume pressure striker. Pereira is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is +6 toward Magomedov — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Pereira 44 (D) vs Magomedov 12 (D). Pereira brings 1.1 TD/15 and 9 sub wins into Magomedov's 85% takedown defense. Punching agility: Magomedov 78 (B+) vs Pereira 54 (C). Hand speed / output lean Magomedov (5.9 SLpM at 69%). Counter punching: Magomedov 50 (D) vs Pereira 43 (D). Magomedov's return is the live one (0.31 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Pereira's entries.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (53%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

MagomedovTraitPereira
69 B
IQ
63 C+
12 D
Ground
44 D
71 B
Defense
66 C+
50 D
Counter
43 D
67 C+
Reaction
63 C+
78 B+
Agility
54 C
69 B
TD react
65 C+
85 A
Chin
84 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
32%
Submission
15%
Decision
53%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

19%

R2

13%

R3

15%

Dist

53%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.2 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Pereira (ground 44) into Magomedov (TD reaction 69).

  • Striking differential

    3.41 vs 1.18 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Magomedov

  • Damage ratio

    2.35 vs 1.38 landed/absorbed

    Magomedov

  • Ground game (tape)

    12 vs 44

    Pereira

  • Striking efficiency

    69% vs 54%

    Magomedov

  • Output (SLpM)

    5.93 vs 4.28

    Magomedov

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Magomedov

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Pereira

  • Fight IQ

    B 69 vs C+ 63 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Magomedov

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Magomedov

  • Striking defense

    56% vs 59%

    Pereira

  • Counter punching

    50 vs 43

    Magomedov

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    B vs C+

    Magomedov

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Pereira (ground 44) into Magomedov (TD reaction 69).

    Pereira

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 81% hips on the shot

    Magomedov

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Magomedov

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Magomedov

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 85% vs 81%

    Magomedov

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Magomedov

  • Reach / length

    73.0" vs 73.0"

    Magomedov

  • Age-adjusted curve

    32 vs 32

    Magomedov

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Magomedov

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Magomedov

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Magomedov

Tape

MagomedovMetricPereira
5.93SLpM4.28
2.52SApM3.10
69%Str Acc54%
56%Str Def59%
0.00TD Avg1.11
0%TD Acc52%
85%TD Def81%
0.00Sub Avg0.60
0.31KD/150.11
6'1"Reach6'1"
32Age32

Shara Magomedov

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Michel Pereira

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

Desk briefing

Sign in to request a written analyst note on this fight.