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UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2 · Light Heavyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Navajo Stirling 72% · KO/TKO · Round 1 · scored hit (Navajo Stirling / KO/TKO)

Ion Cutelaba vs Navajo Stirling

Ion Cutelaba
MoldovaMoldova

Ion Cutelaba

“The Hulk”

Unranked · 20-12-1 · hybrid · Southpaw · 32 · IQ C 58

Xtreme Couture · Moldova

VS
Navajo Stirling
New ZealandNew Zealand

Navajo Stirling

Unranked · 11-0 · striker · Orthodox · 28 · IQ C+ 66

City Kickboxing · New Zealand

Ion Cutelaba

28.4%

Navajo Stirling

71.6%

Model win probability · confidence 67%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Stirling 72 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Navajo Stirling is the model side at 71.6% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Cutelaba (ground 59) into Stirling (TD reaction 68). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Cutelaba 59 (C) vs Stirling 22 (D). Cutelaba brings 3.8 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Stirling's 82% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Cutelaba

    Cutelaba 59 (C) vs Stirling 22 (D). Cutelaba brings 3.8 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Stirling's 82% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Stirling

    Stirling 85 (A) vs Cutelaba 55 (C). Hand speed / output lean Stirling (6.5 SLpM at 58%).

  3. 03

    Takedown reaction

    Stirling

    Stirling 68 (C+) vs Cutelaba 54 (C). When the shot comes, Stirling stuffs it at 82% — Cutelaba is at 70%.

  4. 04

    Timing & reaction

    Stirling

    Stirling 73 (B) vs Cutelaba 61 (C+). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Stirling.

Path · Cutelaba

Cutelaba has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Stirling defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

Path · Stirling

Stirling has to stuff the first takedown (68 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 66 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Stirling is built as: Volume pressure striker. Cutelaba is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — suspect hips against the shot, southpaw. Fight IQ delta is +8 toward Stirling — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Cutelaba 59 (C) vs Stirling 22 (D). Cutelaba brings 3.8 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Stirling's 82% takedown defense. Punching agility: Stirling 85 (A) vs Cutelaba 55 (C). Hand speed / output lean Stirling (6.5 SLpM at 58%). Takedown reaction: Stirling 68 (C+) vs Cutelaba 54 (C). When the shot comes, Stirling stuffs it at 82% — Cutelaba is at 70%.

The finish path leans strikes (54% KO/TKO vs 18% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

CutelabaTraitStirling
58 C
IQ
66 C+
59 C
Ground
22 D
66 C+
Defense
73 B
46 D
Counter
50 D
61 C+
Reaction
73 B
55 C
Agility
85 A
54 C
TD react
68 C+
85 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
54%
Submission
18%
Decision
29%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

35%

R2

19%

R3

18%

Dist

29%

Most likely: Round 1. Expected 8.7 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Cutelaba (ground 59) into Stirling (TD reaction 68). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    1.11 vs 4.13 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Stirling

  • Damage ratio

    1.36 vs 2.76 landed/absorbed

    Stirling

  • Ground game (tape)

    59 vs 22

    Cutelaba

  • Output (SLpM)

    4.23 vs 6.47

    Stirling

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Stirling

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Cutelaba

  • Takedown reaction

    70% vs 82% hips on the shot

    Stirling

  • Fight IQ

    C 58 vs C+ 66 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Stirling

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Stirling

  • Reach / length

    75.0" vs 79.0"

    Stirling

  • Striking defense

    60% vs 55%

    Cutelaba

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Stirling

  • Striking efficiency

    52% vs 58%

    Stirling

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs B

    Stirling

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Cutelaba (ground 59) into Stirling (TD reaction 68). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Cutelaba

  • Counter punching

    46 vs 50

    Stirling

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Stirling

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 70% vs 82%

    Stirling

  • Age-adjusted curve

    32 vs 28

    Stirling

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Cutelaba

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Cutelaba

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Cutelaba

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Cutelaba

Tape

CutelabaMetricStirling
4.23SLpM6.47
3.12SApM2.34
52%Str Acc58%
60%Str Def55%
3.76TD Avg0.82
49%TD Acc25%
70%TD Def82%
0.19Sub Avg0.00
0.33KD/151.02
6'3"Reach6'7"
32Age28

Ion Cutelaba

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Navajo Stirling

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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