OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2 · Women's Bantamweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Bia Mesquita 77% · Submission · Round 1 · scored hit (Bia Mesquita / Submission)

Bia Mesquita vs Melissa Mullins

Bia Mesquita
BrazilBrazil

Bia Mesquita

“The Lady Goat”

Unranked · 8-0 · grappler · Orthodox · 35 · IQ B+ 77

American Top Team · Brazil

VS
Melissa Mullins
EnglandEngland

Melissa Mullins

“No Mess”

Unranked · 7-3 · striker · Orthodox · 35 · IQ C 57

Renegade MMA · England

Bia Mesquita

76.6%

Melissa Mullins

23.4%

Model win probability · confidence 73%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Mesquita 77 — the tape favors submission hunter

Bia Mesquita is the model side at 76.6% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Mesquita (ground 87) into Mullins (TD reaction 56). Ground game is the clearest separator: Mesquita 87 (A) vs Mullins 36 (D). Mesquita brings 3.6 TD/15 and 6 sub wins into Mullins's 77% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Mesquita

    Mesquita 87 (A) vs Mullins 36 (D). Mesquita brings 3.6 TD/15 and 6 sub wins into Mullins's 77% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Fight IQ

    Mesquita

    Mesquita 77 (B+) vs Mullins 57 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Mesquita (B+ vs C).

  3. 03

    Durability

    Mullins

    Mullins 85 (A) vs Mesquita 70 (B). Mullins has been finished by strikes 0 times; Mesquita 0.

  4. 04

    Punching agility

    Mesquita

    Mesquita 63 (C+) vs Mullins 51 (C). Hand speed / output lean Mesquita (4.5 SLpM at 69%).

Path · Mesquita

Mesquita has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Mullins defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

Path · Mullins

Mullins has to stuff the first takedown (56 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 67 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Mullins attacking counter punching with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Mesquita is built as: Submission hunter. Mullins is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is +20 toward Mesquita — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Mesquita 87 (A) vs Mullins 36 (D). Mesquita brings 3.6 TD/15 and 6 sub wins into Mullins's 77% takedown defense. Fight IQ: Mesquita 77 (B+) vs Mullins 57 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Mesquita (B+ vs C). Durability: Mullins 85 (A) vs Mesquita 70 (B). Mullins has been finished by strikes 0 times; Mesquita 0.

The finish path leans the mat (55% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Mullins attacking counter punching with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

MesquitaTraitMullins
77 B+
IQ
57 C
87 A
Ground
36 D
67 C+
Defense
64 C+
53 C
Counter
49 D
56 C
Reaction
61 C+
63 C+
Agility
51 C
64 C+
TD react
56 C
70 B
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
21%
Submission
55%
Decision
24%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

31%

R2

21%

R3

24%

Dist

24%

Most likely: Round 1. Expected 8.8 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Mesquita (ground 87) into Mullins (TD reaction 56).

  • Ground game (tape)

    87 vs 36

    Mesquita

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Mesquita

  • Fight IQ

    B+ 77 vs C 57 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Mesquita

  • Striking differential

    1.50 vs 0.41 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Mesquita

  • Striking efficiency

    69% vs 54%

    Mesquita

  • Damage ratio

    1.50 vs 1.12 landed/absorbed

    Mesquita

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Mullins

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Mesquita

  • Takedown reaction

    71% vs 77% hips on the shot

    Mesquita

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Mesquita

  • Output (SLpM)

    4.52 vs 3.71

    Mesquita

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Mesquita (ground 87) into Mullins (TD reaction 56).

    Mesquita

  • Counter punching

    53 vs 49

    Mesquita

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Mullins

  • Striking defense

    59% vs 61%

    Mullins

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Mesquita

  • Age-adjusted curve

    35 vs 35

    Mesquita

  • Reach / length

    67.5" vs 68.0"

    Mullins

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 71% vs 77%

    Mullins

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Mesquita

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Mesquita

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Mesquita

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Mesquita

Tape

MesquitaMetricMullins
4.52SLpM3.71
3.02SApM3.30
69%Str Acc54%
59%Str Def61%
3.57TD Avg2.03
75%TD Acc43%
71%TD Def77%
3.57Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.28
5'8"Reach5'8"
35Age35

Bia Mesquita

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Melissa Mullins

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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