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UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2 · Featherweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Hyder Amil 61% · Decision · Distance · scored miss (Christian Rodriguez / Submission)

Hyder Amil vs Christian Rodriguez

Hyder Amil
PhilippinesPhilippines

Hyder Amil

“The Hurricane”

Unranked · 11-3 · striker · Switch · 36 · IQ C 57

Skrap Pack · Philippines

VS
Christian Rodriguez
USAUSA

Christian Rodriguez

Unranked · 13-4 · striker · Orthodox · 28 · IQ C+ 65

Xtreme Couture · USA

Hyder Amil

61.0%

Christian Rodriguez

39.0%

Model win probability · confidence 55%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Amil 61 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Hyder Amil is the model side at 61.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Rodriguez (ground 55) into Amil (TD reaction 58). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Rodriguez 55 (C) vs Amil 31 (D). Rodriguez brings 1.8 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Amil's 83% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Rodriguez

    Rodriguez 55 (C) vs Amil 31 (D). Rodriguez brings 1.8 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Amil's 83% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Amil

    Amil 70 (B) vs Rodriguez 55 (C). Hand speed / output lean Amil (5.8 SLpM at 60%).

  3. 03

    Fight IQ

    Rodriguez

    Rodriguez 65 (C+) vs Amil 57 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Rodriguez (C+ vs C).

  4. 04

    Striking defense

    Amil

    Amil 71 (B) vs Rodriguez 65 (C+). Amil absorbs 2.57/min at 56% defense; Rodriguez is a softer target at 3.25 SApM.

Path · Amil

Amil has to stuff the first takedown (58 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 65 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Rodriguez

Rodriguez has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Amil defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Amil is built as: Volume pressure striker. Rodriguez is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is -9 toward Rodriguez — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Rodriguez 55 (C) vs Amil 31 (D). Rodriguez brings 1.8 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Amil's 83% takedown defense. Punching agility: Amil 70 (B) vs Rodriguez 55 (C). Hand speed / output lean Amil (5.8 SLpM at 60%). Fight IQ: Rodriguez 65 (C+) vs Amil 57 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Rodriguez (C+ vs C).

The finish path leans strikes (30% KO/TKO vs 24% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

AmilTraitRodriguez
57 C
IQ
65 C+
31 D
Ground
55 C
71 B
Defense
65 C+
45 D
Counter
47 D
61 C+
Reaction
62 C+
70 B
Agility
55 C
58 C
TD react
59 C
85 A
Chin
81 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
30%
Submission
24%
Decision
46%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

23%

R2

15%

R3

17%

Dist

46%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.6 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Rodriguez (ground 55) into Amil (TD reaction 58). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    3.24 vs 0.60 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Amil

  • Damage ratio

    2.26 vs 1.18 landed/absorbed

    Amil

  • Ground game (tape)

    31 vs 55

    Rodriguez

  • Output (SLpM)

    5.81 vs 3.85

    Amil

  • Fight IQ

    C 57 vs C+ 65 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Rodriguez

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Amil

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Rodriguez

  • Striking defense

    56% vs 60%

    Rodriguez

  • Age-adjusted curve

    36 vs 28

    Rodriguez

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    B vs C+

    Amil

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Rodriguez (ground 55) into Amil (TD reaction 58). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Rodriguez

  • Striking efficiency

    60% vs 56%

    Amil

  • Reach / length

    70.0" vs 71.5"

    Rodriguez

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Amil

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Amil

  • Counter punching

    45 vs 47

    Rodriguez

  • Takedown reaction

    83% vs 78% hips on the shot

    Rodriguez

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 83% vs 78%

    Amil

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Amil

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Rodriguez

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Amil

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Amil

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Amil

Tape

AmilMetricRodriguez
5.81SLpM3.85
2.57SApM3.25
60%Str Acc56%
56%Str Def60%
0.56TD Avg1.75
18%TD Acc41%
83%TD Def78%
0.84Sub Avg1.05
0.40KD/150.10
5'10"Reach5'12"
36Age28

Hyder Amil

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Christian Rodriguez

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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