Andre Lima vs Kevin Borjas

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Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Lima is built as: Pocket striker — elite sprawl. Borjas is built as: Pocket striker — porous pocket. Fight IQ delta is +22 toward Lima — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Lima 47 (D) vs Borjas 12 (D). Lima brings 1.1 TD/15 and 1 sub wins into Borjas's 82% takedown defense. Striking defense: Lima 66 (C+) vs Borjas 35 (D). Lima absorbs 3.40/min at 63% defense; Borjas is a softer target at 6.22 SApM. Timing & reaction: Lima 69 (B) vs Borjas 40 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Lima.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (53%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Borjas attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.