OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez · Welterweight · 5 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Daniel Rodriguez 62% · Decision · Distance · scored miss (Uroš Medić / KO/TKO)

Uroš Medić vs Daniel Rodriguez

Uroš Medić
SerbiaSerbia

Uroš Medić

“The Doctor”

Unranked · 14-3 · striker · Southpaw · 33 · IQ C 53

Kings MMA · Serbia

VS
Daniel Rodriguez
USAUSA

Daniel Rodriguez

“D-Rod”

Unranked · 20-6 · striker · Southpaw · 39 · IQ C+ 66

10th Planet Jiu-Jitsu · USA

Uroš Medić

38.0%

Daniel Rodriguez

62.0%

Model win probability · confidence 56%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Rodriguez 62 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Daniel Rodriguez is the model side at 62.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Counter punching is the clearest separator: Medić 59 (C) vs Rodriguez 30 (D). Medić's return is the live one (1.48 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Rodriguez's entries.

  1. 01

    Counter punching

    Medić

    Medić 59 (C) vs Rodriguez 30 (D). Medić's return is the live one (1.48 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Rodriguez's entries.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Medić

    Medić 82 (B+) vs Rodriguez 66 (C+). Hand speed / output lean Medić (5.8 SLpM at 63%).

  3. 03

    Timing & reaction

    Medić

    Medić 74 (B) vs Rodriguez 60 (C+). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Medić.

  4. 04

    Fight IQ

    Rodriguez

    Rodriguez 66 (C+) vs Medić 53 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Rodriguez (C+ vs C).

Path · Medić

Medić wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Rodriguez a long look at durability.

Path · Rodriguez

Volume. Rodriguez wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Medić a clean reset.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Rodriguez is built as: Volume pressure striker — southpaw. Medić is built as: Volume pressure striker — suspect hips against the shot, southpaw. Fight IQ delta is +14 toward Rodriguez — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Counter punching: Medić 59 (C) vs Rodriguez 30 (D). Medić's return is the live one (1.48 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Rodriguez's entries. Punching agility: Medić 82 (B+) vs Rodriguez 66 (C+). Hand speed / output lean Medić (5.8 SLpM at 63%). Timing & reaction: Medić 74 (B) vs Rodriguez 60 (C+). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Medić.

The finish path leans strikes (36% KO/TKO vs 25% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

MedićTraitRodriguez
53 C
IQ
66 C+
26 D
Ground
30 D
71 B
Defense
73 B
59 C
Counter
30 D
74 B
Reaction
60 C+
82 B+
Agility
66 C+
55 C
TD react
63 C+
85 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
36%
Submission
25%
Decision
40%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

31%

R2

15%

R3

12%

R4

1%

R5

1%

Dist

40%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 13.6 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

  • Striking differential

    3.19 vs 5.11 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Rodriguez

  • Damage ratio

    2.24 vs 3.46 landed/absorbed

    Rodriguez

  • Counter punching

    59 vs 30

    Medić

  • Fight IQ

    C 53 vs C+ 66 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Rodriguez

  • Striking efficiency

    63% vs 51%

    Medić

  • Output (SLpM)

    5.77 vs 7.19

    Rodriguez

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Medić

  • Takedown reaction

    84% vs 83% hips on the shot

    Rodriguez

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Medić

  • Reach / length

    71.0" vs 74.0"

    Rodriguez

  • Age-adjusted curve

    33 vs 39

    Medić

  • Striking defense

    56% vs 54%

    Medić

  • Ground game (tape)

    26 vs 30

    Rodriguez

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    B vs B

    Rodriguez

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Rodriguez

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Medić

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Rodriguez

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Medić

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 84% vs 83%

    Medić

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Medić

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

    Medić

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Medić

  • Championship / 5-round

    Five-round experience matters

    Medić

Tape

MedićMetricRodriguez
5.77SLpM7.19
2.58SApM2.08
63%Str Acc51%
56%Str Def54%
0.34TD Avg0.51
50%TD Acc50%
84%TD Def83%
0.00Sub Avg0.08
1.48KD/150.32
5'11"Reach6'2"
33Age39

Uroš Medić

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Daniel Rodriguez

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

Desk briefing

Sign in to request a written analyst note on this fight.