OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · Women's Bantamweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Chelsea Chandler 55% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Chelsea Chandler / Submission)

Priscila Cachoeira vs Chelsea Chandler

Priscila Cachoeira
BrazilBrazil

Priscila Cachoeira

“Zombie Girl”

Unranked · 13-9 · striker · Orthodox · 37 · IQ D 42

MMA Masters · Brazil

VS
Chelsea Chandler
USAUSA

Chelsea Chandler

Unranked · 7-4 · striker · Southpaw · 35 · IQ C+ 62

Cesar Gracie Jiu-Jitsu · USA

Priscila Cachoeira

44.7%

Chelsea Chandler

55.3%

Model win probability · confidence 48%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Chandler 55 — the tape favors pocket striker

Chelsea Chandler is the model side at 55.3% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Chandler (ground 39) into Cachoeira (TD reaction 55). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Fight IQ is the clearest separator: Chandler 62 (C+) vs Cachoeira 42 (D). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Chandler (C+ vs D).

  1. 01

    Fight IQ

    Chandler

    Chandler 62 (C+) vs Cachoeira 42 (D). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Chandler (C+ vs D).

  2. 02

    Ground game

    Chandler

    Chandler 39 (D) vs Cachoeira 21 (D). Chandler brings 0.8 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Cachoeira's 84% takedown defense.

  3. 03

    Takedown reaction

    Chandler

    Chandler 68 (C+) vs Cachoeira 55 (C). When the shot comes, Chandler stuffs it at 82% — Cachoeira is at 84%.

  4. 04

    Counter punching

    Chandler

    Chandler 49 (D) vs Cachoeira 42 (D). Chandler's return is the live one (0.25 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Cachoeira's entries.

Path · Cachoeira

Cachoeira has to stuff the first takedown (55 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 64 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Chandler

Chandler has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Cachoeira defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Chandler is built as: Pocket striker — southpaw. Cachoeira is built as: Pocket striker — suspect hips against the shot. Fight IQ delta is +20 toward Chandler — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Fight IQ: Chandler 62 (C+) vs Cachoeira 42 (D). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Chandler (C+ vs D). Ground game: Chandler 39 (D) vs Cachoeira 21 (D). Chandler brings 0.8 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Cachoeira's 84% takedown defense. Takedown reaction: Chandler 68 (C+) vs Cachoeira 55 (C). When the shot comes, Chandler stuffs it at 82% — Cachoeira is at 84%.

The finish path leans the mat (34% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

CachoeiraTraitChandler
42 D
IQ
62 C+
21 D
Ground
39 D
66 C+
Defense
64 C+
42 D
Counter
49 D
63 C+
Reaction
62 C+
51 C
Agility
49 D
55 C
TD react
68 C+
85 A
Chin
84 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
26%
Submission
34%
Decision
40%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

27%

R2

16%

R3

17%

Dist

40%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Chandler (ground 39) into Cachoeira (TD reaction 55). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    1.38 vs 0.15 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Cachoeira

  • Fight IQ

    D 42 vs C+ 62 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Chandler

  • Ground game (tape)

    21 vs 39

    Chandler

  • Damage ratio

    1.45 vs 1.04 landed/absorbed

    Cachoeira

  • Takedown reaction

    84% vs 82% hips on the shot

    Chandler

  • Striking efficiency

    45% vs 55%

    Chandler

  • Output (SLpM)

    4.43 vs 3.52

    Cachoeira

  • Reach / length

    65.0" vs 68.0"

    Chandler

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Chandler

  • Counter punching

    42 vs 49

    Chandler

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Chandler (ground 39) into Cachoeira (TD reaction 55). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Chandler

  • Striking defense

    59% vs 61%

    Chandler

  • Age-adjusted curve

    37 vs 35

    Chandler

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Cachoeira

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Chandler

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Cachoeira

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Cachoeira

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Cachoeira

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Cachoeira

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 84% vs 82%

    Cachoeira

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Cachoeira

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Cachoeira

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Cachoeira

Tape

CachoeiraMetricChandler
4.43SLpM3.52
3.05SApM3.37
45%Str Acc55%
59%Str Def61%
0.25TD Avg0.81
40%TD Acc60%
84%TD Def82%
0.00Sub Avg0.27
0.51KD/150.25
5'5"Reach5'8"
37Age35

Priscila Cachoeira

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Chelsea Chandler

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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