OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · Women's Strawweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Ketlen Souza 61% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Ketlen Souza / KO/TKO)

Ketlen Souza vs Ariane Carnelossi

Ketlen Souza
BrazilBrazil

Ketlen Souza

“Esquentadinha”

Unranked · 17-6 · striker · Orthodox · 32 · IQ C 57

Ribas Family · Brazil

VS
Ariane Carnelossi
BrazilBrazil

Ariane Carnelossi

“Sorriso”

Unranked · 15-5 · hybrid · Orthodox · 33 · IQ C 56

Inside Muay Thai · Brazil

Ketlen Souza

61.4%

Ariane Carnelossi

38.6%

Model win probability · confidence 55%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Souza 61 — the tape favors pocket striker

Ketlen Souza is the model side at 61.4% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Carnelossi (ground 35) into Souza (TD reaction 58). Punching agility is the clearest separator: Souza 58 (C) vs Carnelossi 43 (D). Hand speed / output lean Souza (4.0 SLpM at 61%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Souza

    Souza 58 (C) vs Carnelossi 43 (D). Hand speed / output lean Souza (4.0 SLpM at 61%).

  2. 02

    Ground game

    Carnelossi

    Carnelossi 35 (D) vs Souza 21 (D). Carnelossi brings 1.1 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Souza's 83% takedown defense.

  3. 03

    Counter punching

    Souza

    Souza 50 (C) vs Carnelossi 42 (D). Souza's return is the live one (0.12 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Carnelossi's entries.

  4. 04

    Striking defense

    Souza

    Souza 65 (C+) vs Carnelossi 62 (C+). Souza absorbs 3.20/min at 60% defense; Carnelossi is a softer target at 3.66 SApM.

Path · Souza

Souza has to stuff the first takedown (58 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 62 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Carnelossi

Carnelossi has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Souza defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Souza is built as: Pocket striker. Carnelossi is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +1 toward Souza — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Souza 58 (C) vs Carnelossi 43 (D). Hand speed / output lean Souza (4.0 SLpM at 61%). Ground game: Carnelossi 35 (D) vs Souza 21 (D). Carnelossi brings 1.1 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Souza's 83% takedown defense. Counter punching: Souza 50 (C) vs Carnelossi 42 (D). Souza's return is the live one (0.12 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Carnelossi's entries.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (54%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

SouzaTraitCarnelossi
57 C
IQ
56 C
21 D
Ground
35 D
65 C+
Defense
62 C+
50 C
Counter
42 D
65 C+
Reaction
64 C+
58 C
Agility
43 D
58 C
TD react
55 C
85 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
19%
Submission
27%
Decision
54%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

18%

R2

13%

R3

15%

Dist

54%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.3 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Carnelossi (ground 35) into Souza (TD reaction 58).

  • Striking differential

    0.81 vs -0.98 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Souza

  • Damage ratio

    1.25 vs 0.73 landed/absorbed

    Souza

  • Ground game (tape)

    21 vs 35

    Carnelossi

  • Output (SLpM)

    4.01 vs 2.68

    Souza

  • Striking efficiency

    61% vs 52%

    Souza

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Souza

  • Counter punching

    50 vs 42

    Souza

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Carnelossi (ground 35) into Souza (TD reaction 58).

    Carnelossi

  • Striking defense

    60% vs 63%

    Carnelossi

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Carnelossi

  • Reach / length

    63.0" vs 61.5"

    Souza

  • Takedown reaction

    83% vs 81% hips on the shot

    Souza

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Souza

  • Fight IQ

    C 57 vs C 56 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Souza

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Souza

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Souza

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 83% vs 81%

    Souza

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Carnelossi

  • Age-adjusted curve

    32 vs 33

    Carnelossi

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Souza

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Souza

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Souza

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Souza

Tape

SouzaMetricCarnelossi
4.01SLpM2.68
3.20SApM3.66
61%Str Acc52%
60%Str Def63%
0.46TD Avg1.06
13%TD Acc50%
83%TD Def81%
0.23Sub Avg0.21
0.12KD/150.14
5'3"Reach5'2"
32Age33

Ketlen Souza

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Ariane Carnelossi

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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