OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · Featherweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Joanderson Brito 50% · Submission · Distance · scored hit (Joanderson Brito / Submission)

Jordan Leavitt vs Joanderson Brito

Jordan Leavitt
USAUSA

Jordan Leavitt

“The Monkey King”

Unranked · 13-4 · hybrid · Southpaw · 31 · IQ C+ 61

Syndicate MMA · USA

VS
Joanderson Brito
BrazilBrazil

Joanderson Brito

“Tubarao”

Unranked · 19-5-1 · hybrid · Orthodox · 31 · IQ C+ 68

Chute Boxe - Joao Emilio · Brazil

Jordan Leavitt

49.7%

Joanderson Brito

50.3%

Model win probability · confidence 50%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Brito 50 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Joanderson Brito is the model side at 50.3% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. hybrid meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Brito 76 (B+) vs Leavitt 68 (C+). Brito brings 3.4 TD/15 and 8 sub wins into Leavitt's 72% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Brito

    Brito 76 (B+) vs Leavitt 68 (C+). Brito brings 3.4 TD/15 and 8 sub wins into Leavitt's 72% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Takedown reaction

    Brito

    Brito 58 (C) vs Leavitt 51 (C). When the shot comes, Brito stuffs it at 72% — Leavitt is at 72%.

  3. 03

    Fight IQ

    Brito

    Brito 68 (C+) vs Leavitt 61 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Brito (C+ vs C+).

  4. 04

    Punching agility

    Leavitt

    Leavitt 56 (C) vs Brito 51 (C). Hand speed / output lean Leavitt (2.2 SLpM at 71%).

Path · Leavitt

Leavitt wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Brito a long look at ground game.

Path · Brito

Brito has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Leavitt defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Brito is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Leavitt is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — suspect hips against the shot, southpaw. Fight IQ delta is +6 toward Brito — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Brito 76 (B+) vs Leavitt 68 (C+). Brito brings 3.4 TD/15 and 8 sub wins into Leavitt's 72% takedown defense. Takedown reaction: Brito 58 (C) vs Leavitt 51 (C). When the shot comes, Brito stuffs it at 72% — Leavitt is at 72%. Fight IQ: Brito 68 (C+) vs Leavitt 61 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Brito (C+ vs C+).

The finish path leans the mat (39% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

LeavittTraitBrito
61 C+
IQ
68 C+
68 C+
Ground
76 B+
62 C+
Defense
62 C+
58 C
Counter
54 C
62 C+
Reaction
61 C+
56 C
Agility
51 C
51 C
TD react
58 C
77 B+
Chin
73 B

Method of victory

KO / TKO
27%
Submission
39%
Decision
35%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

29%

R2

18%

R3

18%

Dist

35%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 9.5 minutes.

Style matchup

hybrid meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking efficiency

    71% vs 53%

    Leavitt

  • Ground game (tape)

    68 vs 76

    Brito

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 61 vs C+ 68 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Brito

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/6 UFC rows

    Brito

  • Takedown reaction

    72% vs 72% hips on the shot

    Brito

  • Striking differential

    -1.62 vs -1.84 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Leavitt

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Brito

  • Output (SLpM)

    2.21 vs 1.79

    Leavitt

  • Counter punching

    58 vs 54

    Leavitt

  • Damage ratio

    0.58 vs 0.49 landed/absorbed

    Leavitt

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Brito

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Leavitt

  • Reach / length

    71.0" vs 72.0"

    Brito

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Leavitt

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 54

    Brito

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Leavitt

  • Striking defense

    64% vs 64%

    Brito

  • Style interaction

    hybrid meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Leavitt

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Brito

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 72% vs 73%

    Leavitt

  • Age-adjusted curve

    31 vs 31

    Leavitt

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Leavitt

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Leavitt

Tape

LeavittMetricBrito
2.21SLpM2.43
3.83SApM3.75
71%Str Acc61%
64%Str Def63%
3.15TD Avg3.38
34%TD Acc68%
72%TD Def72%
1.05Sub Avg1.13
0.33KD/150.22
5'11"Reach6'0"
31Age31

Jordan Leavitt

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Joanderson Brito

W

Fighter 4686565

Submission · R1 4:19

Jun 6, 2026
W

Fighter 5210642

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Dec 14, 2025
L

Fighter 4085967

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Apr 6, 2025
L

Fighter 4324623

Decision - Split · R3 5:00

Sep 28, 2024
W

Fighter 4319793

TKO - Doctor's Stoppage · R2 3:35

May 5, 2024
W

Fighter 4245092

Submission · R2 3:54

Nov 18, 2023

Your pick

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