OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · Lightweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Tom Nolan 64% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Tom Nolan / Decision - Unanimous)

Farés Ziam vs Tom Nolan

Farés Ziam
FranceFrance

Farés Ziam

“Smile Killer”

Unranked · 18-5 · hybrid · Orthodox · 29 · IQ B 71

Kill Cliff FC · France

VS
Tom Nolan
AustraliaAustralia

Tom Nolan

“Big Train”

Unranked · 11-1 · striker · Southpaw · 26 · IQ C+ 64

Team Compton Training Centre · Australia

Farés Ziam

35.7%

Tom Nolan

64.3%

Model win probability · confidence 66%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Nolan 64 — the tape favors pocket striker

Tom Nolan is the model side at 64.3% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. hybrid meets striker. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Takedown reaction is the clearest separator: Nolan 67 (C+) vs Ziam 53 (C). When the shot comes, Nolan stuffs it at 81% — Ziam is at 78%.

  1. 01

    Takedown reaction

    Nolan

    Nolan 67 (C+) vs Ziam 53 (C). When the shot comes, Nolan stuffs it at 81% — Ziam is at 78%.

  2. 02

    Counter punching

    Ziam

    Ziam 57 (C) vs Nolan 45 (D). Ziam's return is the live one (0.24 KD/15, 3 KOs) against Nolan's entries.

  3. 03

    Punching agility

    Nolan

    Nolan 63 (C+) vs Ziam 55 (C). Hand speed / output lean Nolan (4.8 SLpM at 52%).

  4. 04

    Fight IQ

    Ziam

    Ziam 71 (B) vs Nolan 64 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Ziam (B vs C+).

Path · Ziam

Ziam wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Nolan a long look at durability.

Path · Nolan

Volume. Nolan wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Ziam a clean reset.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Nolan is built as: Pocket striker — southpaw. Ziam is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — suspect hips against the shot. Fight IQ delta is -7 toward Ziam — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Takedown reaction: Nolan 67 (C+) vs Ziam 53 (C). When the shot comes, Nolan stuffs it at 81% — Ziam is at 78%. Counter punching: Ziam 57 (C) vs Nolan 45 (D). Ziam's return is the live one (0.24 KD/15, 3 KOs) against Nolan's entries. Punching agility: Nolan 63 (C+) vs Ziam 55 (C). Hand speed / output lean Nolan (4.8 SLpM at 52%).

The finish path leans strikes (32% KO/TKO vs 26% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

ZiamTraitNolan
71 B
IQ
64 C+
47 D
Ground
45 D
62 C+
Defense
67 C+
57 C
Counter
45 D
64 C+
Reaction
67 C+
55 C
Agility
63 C+
53 C
TD react
67 C+
87 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
32%
Submission
26%
Decision
42%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

27%

R2

15%

R3

16%

Dist

42%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10 minutes.

Style matchup

hybrid meets striker. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    -1.04 vs 1.93 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Nolan

  • Damage ratio

    0.71 vs 1.66 landed/absorbed

    Nolan

  • Output (SLpM)

    2.52 vs 4.84

    Nolan

  • Takedown reaction

    78% vs 81% hips on the shot

    Nolan

  • Fight IQ

    B 71 vs C+ 64 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Ziam

  • Counter punching

    57 vs 45

    Ziam

  • Striking efficiency

    60% vs 52%

    Ziam

  • Striking defense

    63% vs 58%

    Ziam

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Ziam

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Nolan

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Nolan

  • Reach / length

    75.0" vs 73.0"

    Ziam

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 61 vs 50

    Ziam

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Nolan

  • Ground game (tape)

    47 vs 45

    Ziam

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Ziam

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Nolan

  • Age-adjusted curve

    29 vs 26

    Nolan

  • Style interaction

    hybrid meets striker. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Ziam

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 79% vs 81%

    Nolan

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 6/0 UFC rows

    Nolan

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Ziam

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Ziam

Tape

ZiamMetricNolan
2.68SLpM4.84
3.66SApM2.91
64%Str Acc52%
63%Str Def58%
1.86TD Avg1.08
43%TD Acc27%
78%TD Def81%
0.52Sub Avg1.35
0.24KD/150.47
6'3"Reach6'1"
29Age26

Farés Ziam

L

Fighter 5144007

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Jun 7, 2026
W

Fighter 5074130

KO/TKO · R2 4:59

Dec 7, 2025
W

Fighter 4339145

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Feb 1, 2025
W

Fighter 4081024

KO/TKO · R3 2:59

Sep 28, 2024
W

Fighter 4070701

Decision - Split · R3 5:00

Feb 25, 2024
W

Fighter 4078246

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Jul 22, 2023

Tom Nolan

No recent UFC tape in the book.

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