OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · Lightweight · 5 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Manuel Torres 79% · KO/TKO · Round 1 · scored miss (Rafael Fiziev / KO/TKO)

Rafael Fiziev vs Manuel Torres

Rafael Fiziev
AzerbaijanAzerbaijan

Rafael Fiziev

“Ataman”

Unranked · 14-5 · striker · Switch · 33 · IQ C 60

Tiger Muay Thai · Azerbaijan

VS
Manuel Torres
MexicoMexico

Manuel Torres

“El Loco”

Unranked · 17-4 · striker · Switch · 31 · IQ C+ 64

Delincuentes MMA · Mexico

Rafael Fiziev

21.2%

Manuel Torres

78.8%

Model win probability · confidence 75%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Torres 79 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Manuel Torres is the model side at 78.8% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Torres (ground 58) into Fiziev (TD reaction 67). Ground game is the clearest separator: Torres 58 (C) vs Fiziev 34 (D). Torres brings 1.7 TD/15 and 7 sub wins into Fiziev's 81% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Torres

    Torres 58 (C) vs Fiziev 34 (D). Torres brings 1.7 TD/15 and 7 sub wins into Fiziev's 81% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Torres

    Torres 85 (A) vs Fiziev 64 (C+). Hand speed / output lean Torres (7.3 SLpM at 60%).

  3. 03

    Takedown reaction

    Fiziev

    Fiziev 67 (C+) vs Torres 53 (C). When the shot comes, Fiziev stuffs it at 81% — Torres is at 78%.

  4. 04

    Counter punching

    Fiziev

    Fiziev 50 (C) vs Torres 42 (D). Fiziev's return is the live one (0.59 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Torres's entries.

Path · Fiziev

Fiziev has to stuff the first takedown (67 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 73 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Torres

Torres has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Fiziev defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Fiziev attacking counter punching with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Torres is built as: Volume pressure striker — suspect hips against the shot. Fiziev is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is +4 toward Torres — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Torres 58 (C) vs Fiziev 34 (D). Torres brings 1.7 TD/15 and 7 sub wins into Fiziev's 81% takedown defense. Punching agility: Torres 85 (A) vs Fiziev 64 (C+). Hand speed / output lean Torres (7.3 SLpM at 60%). Takedown reaction: Fiziev 67 (C+) vs Torres 53 (C). When the shot comes, Fiziev stuffs it at 81% — Torres is at 78%.

The finish path leans strikes (40% KO/TKO vs 36% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Fiziev attacking counter punching with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

FizievTraitTorres
60 C
IQ
64 C+
34 D
Ground
58 C
67 C+
Defense
73 B
50 C
Counter
42 D
69 B
Reaction
68 B
64 C+
Agility
85 A
67 C+
TD react
53 C
85 A
Chin
80 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
40%
Submission
36%
Decision
24%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

37%

R2

20%

R3

15%

R4

2%

R5

2%

Dist

24%

Most likely: Round 1. Expected 11 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Torres (ground 58) into Fiziev (TD reaction 67).

  • Striking differential

    1.76 vs 5.24 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Torres

  • Damage ratio

    1.60 vs 3.56 landed/absorbed

    Torres

  • Ground game (tape)

    34 vs 58

    Torres

  • Output (SLpM)

    4.71 vs 7.29

    Torres

  • Takedown reaction

    81% vs 78% hips on the shot

    Fiziev

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Torres

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Torres

  • Striking defense

    59% vs 53%

    Fiziev

  • Fight IQ

    C 60 vs C+ 64 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Torres

  • Counter punching

    50 vs 42

    Fiziev

  • Striking efficiency

    55% vs 60%

    Torres

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs B

    Torres

  • Reach / length

    71.5" vs 73.5"

    Torres

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Torres (ground 58) into Fiziev (TD reaction 67).

    Torres

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Fiziev

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Torres

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Torres

  • Age-adjusted curve

    33 vs 31

    Torres

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Fiziev

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 81% vs 78%

    Fiziev

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Fiziev

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Fiziev

  • Championship / 5-round

    Five-round experience matters

    Fiziev

Tape

FizievMetricTorres
4.71SLpM7.29
2.95SApM2.05
55%Str Acc60%
59%Str Def53%
1.00TD Avg1.72
71%TD Acc67%
81%TD Def78%
0.00Sub Avg0.86
0.59KD/150.67
5'12"Reach6'2"
33Age31

Rafael Fiziev

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Manuel Torres

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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