UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · Welterweight · 5 rounds
Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Islam Makhachev 66% · Submission · Round 1 · scored hit (Islam Makhachev / Decision - Unanimous)
Islam Makhachev vs Ian Machado Garry
RussiaIslam Makhachev
#8 · 29-1 · hybrid · Southpaw · 34 · IQ A 88
Eagles MMA · Russia
IrelandIan Machado Garry
“The Future”
Unranked · 17-2 · striker · Orthodox · 28 · IQ C+ 66
Chute Boxe - Diego Lima · Ireland
Islam Makhachev
65.7%
Ian Machado Garry
34.3%
Model win probability · confidence 65%
No market posted yet.
Why the model leans this way
Makhachev 66 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels
Islam Makhachev is the model side at 65.7% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Makhachev (ground 70) into Garry (TD reaction 67). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Makhachev 70 (B) vs Machado Garry 30 (D). Makhachev brings 3.1 TD/15 and 13 sub wins into Machado Garry's 81% takedown defense.
- 01
Ground game
MakhachevMakhachev 70 (B) vs Machado Garry 30 (D). Makhachev brings 3.1 TD/15 and 13 sub wins into Machado Garry's 81% takedown defense.
- 02
Fight IQ
MakhachevMakhachev 88 (A) vs Machado Garry 66 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Makhachev (A vs C+).
- 03
Takedown reaction
MakhachevMakhachev 87 (A) vs Machado Garry 67 (C+). When the shot comes, Makhachev stuffs it at 100% — Machado Garry is at 81%.
- 04
Counter punching
MakhachevMakhachev 64 (C+) vs Machado Garry 49 (D). Makhachev's return is the live one (0.67 KD/15, 6 KOs) against Machado Garry's entries.
Path · Makhachev
Makhachev has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Machado Garry defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.
Path · Garry
Machado Garry has to stuff the first takedown (67 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 62 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.
A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.
Full read
Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Makhachev is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — high-IQ problem solver, elite sprawl, southpaw. Machado Garry is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is +22 toward Makhachev — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.
The edges that move the number. Ground game: Makhachev 70 (B) vs Machado Garry 30 (D). Makhachev brings 3.1 TD/15 and 13 sub wins into Machado Garry's 81% takedown defense. Fight IQ: Makhachev 88 (A) vs Machado Garry 66 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Makhachev (A vs C+). Takedown reaction: Makhachev 87 (A) vs Machado Garry 67 (C+). When the shot comes, Makhachev stuffs it at 100% — Machado Garry is at 81%.
The finish path leans the mat (36% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.
Style & IQ board
Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.
Method of victory
Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.
Duration
R1
35%
R2
18%
R3
14%
R4
1%
R5
1%
Dist
31%
Most likely: Round 1. Expected 12.2 minutes.
Style matchup
Grappler historical edge: Makhachev (ground 70) into Garry (TD reaction 67). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
Ground game (tape)
70 vs 30
MakhachevFight IQ
A 88 vs C+ 66 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments
MakhachevRecency form
Opp.-adjusted last 4/0 UFC rows
MakhachevGrappling composite
TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)
MakhachevStriking differential
1.14 vs 1.85 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)
GarryTakedown reaction
100% vs 81% hips on the shot
MakhachevOutput (SLpM)
3.11 vs 4.78
GarryCounter punching
64 vs 49
MakhachevStrength of schedule
Opp. quality 85 vs 50
MakhachevStriking efficiency
66% vs 58%
MakhachevReach / length
70.5" vs 74.5"
GarryDurability
0 vs 0 KO losses
GarryStriking defense
55% vs 58%
GarryStyle interaction
Grappler historical edge: Makhachev (ground 70) into Garry (TD reaction 67). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
MakhachevPocket defense (tape)
C+ vs C+
GarryCardio proxy
Output sustainability + distance rate
MakhachevAge-adjusted curve
34 vs 28
GarryDamage ratio
1.58 vs 1.63 landed/absorbed
GarryTiming & reaction
Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy
MakhachevLayoff / rust
Time since last fight
GarryPunching agility
Output × accuracy × age curve
GarryTakedown mismatch
TD def 90% vs 81%
MakhachevChampionship / 5-round
Five-round experience matters
Makhachev
Tape
Islam Makhachev
Renato Moicano
Submission · R1 4:05
Alexander Volkanovski
KO/TKO · R1 3:06
Alexander Volkanovski
Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00
Charles Oliveira
Submission · R2 3:16
Ian Machado Garry
No recent UFC tape in the book.
Your pick
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