OctagonEdge

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · Heavyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Gable Steveson 91% · KO/TKO · Distance · scored hit (Gable Steveson / KO/TKO)

Gable Steveson vs Elisha Ellison

Gable Steveson
USAUSA

Gable Steveson

Unranked · 4-0 · striker · Orthodox · 26 · IQ B+ 80

Jackson-Wink MMA · USA

VS
Elisha Ellison
USAUSA

Elisha Ellison

“Snack Panther”

Unranked · 5-3 · hybrid · Orthodox · 29 · IQ C 53

Combat Sport and Fitness · USA

Gable Steveson

91.0%

Elisha Ellison

9.0%

Model win probability · confidence 86%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Steveson 91 — the tape favors power striker

Gable Steveson is the model side at 91.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. striker meets hybrid. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Steveson 91 (A+) vs Ellison 30 (D). Hand speed / output lean Steveson (16.3 SLpM at 72%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Steveson

    Steveson 91 (A+) vs Ellison 30 (D). Hand speed / output lean Steveson (16.3 SLpM at 72%).

  2. 02

    Counter punching

    Steveson

    Steveson 59 (C) vs Ellison 29 (D). Steveson's return is the live one (0.70 KD/15, 2 KOs) against Ellison's entries.

  3. 03

    Fight IQ

    Steveson

    Steveson 80 (B+) vs Ellison 53 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Steveson (B+ vs C).

  4. 04

    Durability

    Ellison

    Ellison 85 (A) vs Steveson 70 (B). Ellison has been finished by strikes 0 times; Steveson 0.

Path · Steveson

Volume. Steveson wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Ellison a clean reset.

Path · Ellison

Ellison wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Steveson a long look at punching agility.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Ellison attacking ground game with durability.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Steveson is built as: Power striker — high-IQ problem solver. Ellison is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +27 toward Steveson — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Steveson 91 (A+) vs Ellison 30 (D). Hand speed / output lean Steveson (16.3 SLpM at 72%). Counter punching: Steveson 59 (C) vs Ellison 29 (D). Steveson's return is the live one (0.70 KD/15, 2 KOs) against Ellison's entries. Fight IQ: Steveson 80 (B+) vs Ellison 53 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Steveson (B+ vs C).

The finish path leans strikes (48% KO/TKO vs 9% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Ellison attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

StevesonTraitEllison
80 B+
IQ
53 C
12 D
Ground
16 D
66 C+
Defense
61 C+
59 C
Counter
29 D
64 C+
Reaction
65 C+
91 A+
Agility
30 D
69 B
TD react
59 C
70 B
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
48%
Submission
9%
Decision
43%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

29%

R2

15%

R3

14%

Dist

43%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 9.9 minutes.

Style matchup

striker meets hybrid.

  • Striking differential

    7.30 vs -2.48 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Steveson

  • Damage ratio

    7.08 vs 0.39 landed/absorbed

    Steveson

  • Output (SLpM)

    8.50 vs 1.57

    Steveson

  • Striking efficiency

    72% vs 33%

    Steveson

  • Fight IQ

    B+ 80 vs C 53 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Steveson

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Steveson

  • Striking defense

    44% vs 65%

    Ellison

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 4/0 UFC rows

    Steveson

  • Counter punching

    59 vs 29

    Steveson

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Steveson

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Ellison

  • Reach / length

    74.0" vs 78.0"

    Ellison

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Steveson

  • Ground game (tape)

    12 vs 16

    Ellison

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Steveson

  • Age-adjusted curve

    26 vs 29

    Steveson

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 52 vs 50

    Steveson

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Ellison

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Steveson

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Steveson

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 88% vs 85%

    Steveson

  • Style interaction

    striker meets hybrid.

    Steveson

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Steveson

Tape

StevesonMetricEllison
16.29SLpM1.57
1.40SApM4.05
72%Str Acc33%
42%Str Def65%
0.00TD Avg0.00
0%TD Acc0%
85%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.70KD/150.10
6'2"Reach6'6"
26Age29

Gable Steveson

W

Fighter 5293987

KO/TKO · R1 2:31

Jul 11, 2026
W

Fighter 5332608

KO/TKO · R1 3:50

Feb 20, 2026
W

Fighter 5332609

KO/TKO · R1 0:24

Nov 23, 2025
W

Fighter 5304649

KO/TKO · R1 1:38

Sep 12, 2025

Elisha Ellison

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

Desk briefing

Sign in to request a written analyst note on this fight.