OctagonEdge

UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje · Heavyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Josh Hokit 91% · KO/TKO · Round 1 · scored hit (Josh Hokit / KO/TKO)

Josh Hokit vs Derrick Lewis

Josh Hokit
USAUSA

Josh Hokit

Unranked · 10-0 · striker · Orthodox · 28 · IQ B+ 80

Jackson-Wink MMA · USA

VS
Derrick Lewis
USAUSA

Derrick Lewis

“The Black Beast”

#3 · 29-14 · hybrid · Orthodox · 41 · IQ C 53

Silverback Fight Club · USA

Josh Hokit

91.0%

Derrick Lewis

9.0%

Model win probability · confidence 86%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Hokit 91 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Josh Hokit is the model side at 91.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Hokit (ground 63) into Lewis (TD reaction 22). Punching agility is the clearest separator: Hokit 95 (A+) vs Lewis 34 (D). Hand speed / output lean Hokit (9.3 SLpM at 67%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Hokit

    Hokit 95 (A+) vs Lewis 34 (D). Hand speed / output lean Hokit (9.3 SLpM at 67%).

  2. 02

    Ground game

    Hokit

    Hokit 63 (C+) vs Lewis 20 (D). Hokit brings 3.7 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Lewis's 22% takedown defense.

  3. 03

    Timing & reaction

    Hokit

    Hokit 67 (C+) vs Lewis 24 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Hokit.

  4. 04

    Takedown reaction

    Hokit

    Hokit 64 (C+) vs Lewis 22 (D). When the shot comes, Hokit stuffs it at 70% — Lewis is at 22%.

Path · Hokit

Hokit has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Lewis defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

Path · Lewis

Lewis has to stuff the first takedown (22 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 72 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Lewis attacking counter punching with their best weapon.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Hokit is built as: Volume pressure striker — high-IQ problem solver. Lewis is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — suspect hips against the shot, porous pocket. Fight IQ delta is +28 toward Hokit — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Hokit 95 (A+) vs Lewis 34 (D). Hand speed / output lean Hokit (9.3 SLpM at 67%). Ground game: Hokit 63 (C+) vs Lewis 20 (D). Hokit brings 3.7 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Lewis's 22% takedown defense. Timing & reaction: Hokit 67 (C+) vs Lewis 24 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Hokit.

The finish path leans strikes (60% KO/TKO vs 24% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Lewis attacking counter punching with their best weapon. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

HokitTraitLewis
80 B+
IQ
53 C
63 C+
Ground
20 D
72 B
Defense
40 D
53 C
Counter
44 D
67 C+
Reaction
24 D
95 A+
Agility
34 D
64 C+
TD react
22 D
83 B+
Chin
64 C+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
60%
Submission
24%
Decision
16%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

43%

R2

20%

R3

20%

Dist

16%

Most likely: Round 1. Expected 7.5 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Hokit (ground 63) into Lewis (TD reaction 22).

  • Striking differential

    7.89 vs -2.42 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Hokit

  • Damage ratio

    6.64 vs 0.39 landed/absorbed

    Hokit

  • Output (SLpM)

    9.29 vs 1.58

    Hokit

  • Ground game (tape)

    63 vs 20

    Hokit

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/2 UFC rows

    Hokit

  • Fight IQ

    B+ 80 vs C 53 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Hokit

  • Takedown reaction

    70% vs 22% hips on the shot

    Hokit

  • Striking efficiency

    67% vs 35%

    Hokit

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Hokit

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Hokit

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Hokit

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    B vs D

    Hokit

  • Striking defense

    49% vs 38%

    Hokit

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 70% vs 35%

    Hokit

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Hokit

  • Reach / length

    73.5" vs 79.0"

    Lewis

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Hokit (ground 63) into Lewis (TD reaction 22).

    Hokit

  • Counter punching

    53 vs 44

    Hokit

  • Age-adjusted curve

    28 vs 41

    Hokit

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 66

    Lewis

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Hokit

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Hokit

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Hokit

Tape

HokitMetricLewis
9.29SLpM2.41
1.40SApM3.73
67%Str Acc51%
49%Str Def33%
3.73TD Avg0.53
47%TD Acc26%
70%TD Def22%
0.41Sub Avg0.00
1.12KD/150.00
6'2"Reach6'7"
28Age41

Josh Hokit

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Derrick Lewis

L

Waldo Cortes Acosta

KO/TKO · R2 3:14

Jan 25, 2026
L

Serghei Spivac

Submission · R1 3:05

Feb 5, 2023

Your pick

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