OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · Flyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Bruno Silva 78% · Decision · Distance · scored miss (Édgar Cháirez / Submission)

Bruno Silva vs Édgar Cháirez

Bruno Silva
BrazilBrazil

Bruno Silva

“Bulldog”

Unranked · 15-9-2 · striker · Orthodox · 36 · IQ C 56

Fight Ready · Brazil

VS
Édgar Cháirez
MexicoMexico

Édgar Cháirez

“Puro Chicali”

Unranked · 14-6 · striker · Orthodox · 30 · IQ C 53

Entram Gym · Mexico

Bruno Silva

78.4%

Édgar Cháirez

21.6%

Model win probability · confidence 82%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Silva 78 — the tape favors pocket striker

Bruno Silva is the model side at 78.4% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Takedown reaction is the clearest separator: Silva 59 (C) vs Cháirez 19 (D). When the shot comes, Silva stuffs it at 77% — Cháirez is at 0%.

  1. 01

    Takedown reaction

    Silva

    Silva 59 (C) vs Cháirez 19 (D). When the shot comes, Silva stuffs it at 77% — Cháirez is at 0%.

  2. 02

    Timing & reaction

    Silva

    Silva 58 (C) vs Cháirez 21 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Silva.

  3. 03

    Striking defense

    Silva

    Silva 65 (C+) vs Cháirez 28 (D). Silva absorbs 3.22/min at 60% defense; Cháirez is a softer target at 7.87 SApM.

  4. 04

    Counter punching

    Silva

    Silva 49 (D) vs Cháirez 31 (D). Silva's return is the live one (0.31 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Cháirez's entries.

Path · Silva

Silva wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Cháirez a long look at their first weapon.

Path · Cháirez

Cháirez wins by forcing the fight into their best skill and denying Silva a long look at durability.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Cháirez attacking ground game with their best weapon.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Silva is built as: Pocket striker. Cháirez is built as: Pocket striker — suspect hips against the shot, porous pocket. Fight IQ delta is +4 toward Silva — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Takedown reaction: Silva 59 (C) vs Cháirez 19 (D). When the shot comes, Silva stuffs it at 77% — Cháirez is at 0%. Timing & reaction: Silva 58 (C) vs Cháirez 21 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Silva. Striking defense: Silva 65 (C+) vs Cháirez 28 (D). Silva absorbs 3.22/min at 60% defense; Cháirez is a softer target at 7.87 SApM.

The finish path leans strikes (34% KO/TKO vs 28% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Cháirez attacking ground game with their best weapon. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

SilvaTraitCháirez
56 C
IQ
53 C
40 D
Ground
41 D
65 C+
Defense
28 D
49 D
Counter
31 D
58 C
Reaction
21 D
54 C
Agility
38 D
59 C
TD react
19 D
83 B+
Chin
70 B

Method of victory

KO / TKO
34%
Submission
28%
Decision
38%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

25%

R2

17%

R3

20%

Dist

38%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.1 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

  • Striking differential

    0.73 vs -2.02 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Silva

  • Takedown reaction

    77% vs 0% hips on the shot

    Silva

  • Striking defense

    60% vs 42%

    Silva

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs D

    Silva

  • Damage ratio

    1.23 vs 0.68 landed/absorbed

    Silva

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Silva

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/6 UFC rows

    Cháirez

  • Counter punching

    49 vs 31

    Silva

  • Reach / length

    65.0" vs 71.0"

    Cháirez

  • Striking efficiency

    56% vs 47%

    Silva

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 77% vs 35%

    Silva

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Silva

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Silva

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Silva

  • Fight IQ

    C 56 vs C 53 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Silva

  • Age-adjusted curve

    36 vs 30

    Cháirez

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.95 vs 4.38

    Cháirez

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Silva

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 54

    Cháirez

  • Ground game (tape)

    40 vs 41

    Cháirez

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

    Silva

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Silva

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Silva

Tape

SilvaMetricCháirez
3.95SLpM3.76
3.22SApM7.87
56%Str Acc48%
60%Str Def41%
1.94TD Avg0.00
24%TD Acc0%
77%TD Def0%
0.24Sub Avg1.44
0.31KD/150.00
5'5"Reach5'11"
36Age30

Bruno Silva

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Édgar Cháirez

W

Fighter 3895544

Submission · R1 4:13

Jun 6, 2026
W

Fighter 4916248

Decision - Split · R3 5:00

Mar 1, 2026
W

Fighter 4396359

Submission · R1 2:30

Mar 29, 2025
L

Joshua Van

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Sep 15, 2024
W

Fighter 4895772

Submission · R1 2:17

Feb 25, 2024
L

Fighter 4895772

No Contest · R1 3:47

Sep 16, 2023

Your pick

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