OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · Women's Flyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Yuneisy Duben 91% · Decision · Distance · scored miss (Jeisla Chaves / Decision - Split)

Jeisla Chaves vs Yuneisy Duben

Jeisla Chaves
BrazilBrazil

Jeisla Chaves

“A Braba”

Unranked · 8-0 · striker · Orthodox · 29 · IQ B 72

Gomes Fight Team · Brazil

VS
Yuneisy Duben
VenezuelaVenezuela

Yuneisy Duben

Unranked · 6-2 · striker · Orthodox · 30 · IQ C+ 66

Team Ludus · Venezuela

Jeisla Chaves

9.0%

Yuneisy Duben

91.0%

Model win probability · confidence 86%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Duben 91 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Yuneisy Duben is the model side at 91.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Chaves (ground 37) into Duben (TD reaction 69). Ground game is the clearest separator: Chaves 37 (D) vs Duben 15 (D). Chaves brings 1.5 TD/15 and 0 sub wins into Duben's 85% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Chaves

    Chaves 37 (D) vs Duben 15 (D). Chaves brings 1.5 TD/15 and 0 sub wins into Duben's 85% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Counter punching

    Chaves

    Chaves 43 (D) vs Duben 23 (D). Chaves's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Duben's entries.

  3. 03

    Punching agility

    Duben

    Duben 74 (B) vs Chaves 65 (C+). Hand speed / output lean Duben (13.5 SLpM at 50%).

  4. 04

    Durability

    Chaves

    Chaves 91 (A+) vs Duben 84 (A). Chaves has been finished by strikes 0 times; Duben 0.

Path · Chaves

Chaves has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Duben defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

Path · Duben

Duben has to stuff the first takedown (69 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 68 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Chaves attacking ground game with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Duben is built as: Volume pressure striker. Chaves is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is -6 toward Chaves — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Chaves 37 (D) vs Duben 15 (D). Chaves brings 1.5 TD/15 and 0 sub wins into Duben's 85% takedown defense. Counter punching: Chaves 43 (D) vs Duben 23 (D). Chaves's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Duben's entries. Punching agility: Duben 74 (B) vs Chaves 65 (C+). Hand speed / output lean Duben (13.5 SLpM at 50%).

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (52%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Chaves attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

ChavesTraitDuben
72 B
IQ
66 C+
37 D
Ground
15 D
68 C+
Defense
66 C+
43 D
Counter
23 D
62 C+
Reaction
60 C
65 C+
Agility
74 B
67 C+
TD react
69 B
91 A+
Chin
84 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
25%
Submission
23%
Decision
52%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

20%

R2

13%

R3

15%

Dist

52%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.1 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Chaves (ground 37) into Duben (TD reaction 69).

  • Damage ratio

    1.27 vs 9.66 landed/absorbed

    Duben

  • Striking differential

    0.70 vs 12.13 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Duben

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.33 vs 13.53

    Duben

  • Striking defense

    60% vs 42%

    Chaves

  • Ground game (tape)

    37 vs 15

    Chaves

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 6/0 UFC rows

    Chaves

  • Counter punching

    43 vs 23

    Chaves

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Chaves

  • Fight IQ

    B 72 vs C+ 66 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Chaves

  • Striking efficiency

    58% vs 50%

    Chaves

  • Reach / length

    68.0" vs 65.0"

    Chaves

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Duben

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Chaves

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Chaves

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Chaves (ground 37) into Duben (TD reaction 69).

    Chaves

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 57 vs 50

    Chaves

  • Takedown reaction

    79% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Duben

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Chaves

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Chaves

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 82% vs 85%

    Duben

  • Age-adjusted curve

    29 vs 30

    Chaves

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Chaves

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Chaves

Tape

ChavesMetricDuben
4.97SLpM13.53
2.86SApM1.40
59%Str Acc50%
58%Str Def42%
1.50TD Avg0.00
38%TD Acc0%
79%TD Def85%
0.50Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.31
5'8"Reach5'5"
29Age30

Jeisla Chaves

W

Fighter 5211223

Decision - Split · R3 5:00

Jun 6, 2026
W

Fighter 5308770

Decision - Split · R3 5:00

Sep 24, 2025
W

Fighter 5309080

KO/TKO · R3 4:31

Apr 6, 2025
W

Fighter 5309079

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Jul 6, 2024
W

Fighter 5309078

KO/TKO · R1 4:49

Apr 20, 2024
W

Fighter 5310565

KO/TKO · R1 2:40

Mar 9, 2024

Yuneisy Duben

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

Desk briefing

Sign in to request a written analyst note on this fight.