OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · Welterweight · 5 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Gabriel Bonfim 62% · Submission · Distance · scored hit (Gabriel Bonfim / Decision - Unanimous)

Belal Muhammad vs Gabriel Bonfim

Belal Muhammad
PalestinePalestine

Belal Muhammad

“Remember the Name”

Unranked · 24-6 · striker · Orthodox · 38 · IQ C+ 62

Valle Flow Striking · Palestine

VS
Gabriel Bonfim
BrazilBrazil

Gabriel Bonfim

“Marretinha”

Unranked · 20-1 · striker · Orthodox · 28 · IQ B 68

Cerrado MMA · Brazil

Belal Muhammad

37.7%

Gabriel Bonfim

62.3%

Model win probability · confidence 56%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Bonfim 62 — the tape favors pocket striker

Gabriel Bonfim is the model side at 62.3% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Bonfim (ground 67) into Muhammad (TD reaction 66). Ground game is the clearest separator: Bonfim 67 (C+) vs Muhammad 37 (D). Bonfim brings 2.6 TD/15 and 13 sub wins into Muhammad's 77% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Bonfim

    Bonfim 67 (C+) vs Muhammad 37 (D). Bonfim brings 2.6 TD/15 and 13 sub wins into Muhammad's 77% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Durability

    Muhammad

    Muhammad 85 (A) vs Bonfim 73 (B). Muhammad has been finished by strikes 0 times; Bonfim 0.

  3. 03

    Punching agility

    Bonfim

    Bonfim 56 (C) vs Muhammad 48 (D). Hand speed / output lean Bonfim (4.8 SLpM at 48%).

  4. 04

    Fight IQ

    Bonfim

    Bonfim 68 (B) vs Muhammad 62 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Bonfim (B vs C+).

Path · Muhammad

Muhammad has to stuff the first takedown (66 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 67 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Bonfim

Bonfim has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Muhammad defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Bonfim is built as: Pocket striker. Muhammad is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is +6 toward Bonfim — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Bonfim 67 (C+) vs Muhammad 37 (D). Bonfim brings 2.6 TD/15 and 13 sub wins into Muhammad's 77% takedown defense. Durability: Muhammad 85 (A) vs Bonfim 73 (B). Muhammad has been finished by strikes 0 times; Bonfim 0. Punching agility: Bonfim 56 (C) vs Muhammad 48 (D). Hand speed / output lean Bonfim (4.8 SLpM at 48%).

The finish path leans the mat (44% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

MuhammadTraitBonfim
62 C+
IQ
68 B
37 D
Ground
67 C+
66 C+
Defense
67 C+
40 D
Counter
36 D
57 C
Reaction
61 C+
48 D
Agility
56 C
66 C+
TD react
65 C+
85 A
Chin
73 B

Method of victory

KO / TKO
26%
Submission
44%
Decision
30%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

28%

R2

19%

R3

14%

R4

4%

R5

5%

Dist

30%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 13 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Bonfim (ground 67) into Muhammad (TD reaction 66).

  • Ground game (tape)

    37 vs 67

    Bonfim

  • Striking differential

    1.29 vs 1.83 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Bonfim

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Bonfim

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 62 vs B 68 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Bonfim

  • Damage ratio

    1.42 vs 1.62 landed/absorbed

    Bonfim

  • Age-adjusted curve

    38 vs 28

    Bonfim

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Muhammad

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Bonfim

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Bonfim

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Bonfim (ground 67) into Muhammad (TD reaction 66).

    Bonfim

  • Output (SLpM)

    4.36 vs 4.76

    Bonfim

  • Counter punching

    40 vs 36

    Muhammad

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Bonfim

  • Striking efficiency

    50% vs 48%

    Muhammad

  • Striking defense

    59% vs 58%

    Muhammad

  • Reach / length

    72.0" vs 72.5"

    Bonfim

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Bonfim

  • Takedown reaction

    77% vs 75% hips on the shot

    Muhammad

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 77% vs 75%

    Muhammad

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Bonfim

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Muhammad

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Muhammad

  • Championship / 5-round

    Five-round experience matters

    Muhammad

Tape

MuhammadMetricBonfim
4.36SLpM4.76
3.07SApM2.93
50%Str Acc48%
59%Str Def58%
1.98TD Avg2.57
36%TD Acc54%
77%TD Def75%
0.13Sub Avg1.03
0.18KD/150.13
6'0"Reach6'1"
38Age28

Belal Muhammad

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Gabriel Bonfim

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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