OctagonEdge

UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje · Featherweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Steve Garcia 59% · KO/TKO · Distance · scored miss (Diego Lopes / KO/TKO)

Diego Lopes vs Steve Garcia

Diego Lopes
BrazilBrazil

Diego Lopes

Unranked · 28-8 · striker · Orthodox · 31 · IQ C+ 66

Lobo Gym MMA · Brazil

VS
Steve Garcia
USAUSA

Steve Garcia

“Mean Machine”

Unranked · 19-6 · striker · Southpaw · 34 · IQ C 58

Jackson-Wink MMA · USA

Diego Lopes

40.6%

Steve Garcia

59.4%

Model win probability · confidence 53%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Garcia 59 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Steve Garcia is the model side at 59.4% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Lopes (ground 55) into Garcia (TD reaction 63). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Lopes 55 (C) vs Garcia 30 (D). Lopes brings 0.9 TD/15 and 12 sub wins into Garcia's 82% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Lopes

    Lopes 55 (C) vs Garcia 30 (D). Lopes brings 0.9 TD/15 and 12 sub wins into Garcia's 82% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Garcia

    Garcia 73 (B) vs Lopes 55 (C). Hand speed / output lean Garcia (5.5 SLpM at 55%).

  3. 03

    Fight IQ

    Lopes

    Lopes 66 (C+) vs Garcia 58 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Lopes (C+ vs C).

  4. 04

    Durability

    Garcia

    Garcia 85 (A) vs Lopes 80 (B+). Garcia has been finished by strikes 0 times; Lopes 0.

Path · Lopes

Lopes has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Garcia defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

Path · Garcia

Garcia has to stuff the first takedown (63 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 65 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Garcia is built as: Volume pressure striker — southpaw. Lopes is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is -8 toward Lopes — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Lopes 55 (C) vs Garcia 30 (D). Lopes brings 0.9 TD/15 and 12 sub wins into Garcia's 82% takedown defense. Punching agility: Garcia 73 (B) vs Lopes 55 (C). Hand speed / output lean Garcia (5.5 SLpM at 55%). Fight IQ: Lopes 66 (C+) vs Garcia 58 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Lopes (C+ vs C).

The finish path leans strikes (43% KO/TKO vs 23% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

LopesTraitGarcia
66 C+
IQ
58 C
55 C
Ground
30 D
65 C+
Defense
69 B
47 D
Counter
51 C
66 C+
Reaction
70 B
55 C
Agility
73 B
67 C+
TD react
63 C+
80 B+
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
43%
Submission
23%
Decision
34%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

32%

R2

18%

R3

17%

Dist

34%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 9.2 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Lopes (ground 55) into Garcia (TD reaction 63). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    0.57 vs 2.77 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Garcia

  • Damage ratio

    1.17 vs 2.03 landed/absorbed

    Garcia

  • Ground game (tape)

    55 vs 30

    Lopes

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.83 vs 5.46

    Garcia

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 66 vs C 58 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Lopes

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Garcia

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Lopes

  • Striking defense

    60% vs 57%

    Lopes

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Lopes (ground 55) into Garcia (TD reaction 63). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Lopes

  • Reach / length

    72.5" vs 75.0"

    Garcia

  • Takedown reaction

    81% vs 82% hips on the shot

    Lopes

  • Striking efficiency

    52% vs 55%

    Garcia

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs B

    Garcia

  • Counter punching

    47 vs 51

    Garcia

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Garcia

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Garcia

  • Age-adjusted curve

    31 vs 34

    Lopes

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Garcia

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Lopes

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 81% vs 82%

    Garcia

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Lopes

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Lopes

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Lopes

Tape

LopesMetricGarcia
3.83SLpM5.46
3.26SApM2.69
52%Str Acc55%
60%Str Def57%
0.88TD Avg0.77
50%TD Acc40%
81%TD Def82%
1.38Sub Avg0.39
0.31KD/150.90
6'1"Reach6'3"
31Age34

Diego Lopes

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Steve Garcia

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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