OctagonEdge

UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje · Lightweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Mauricio Ruffy 91% · KO/TKO · Round 1 · scored hit (Mauricio Ruffy / KO/TKO)

Mauricio Ruffy vs Michael Chandler

Mauricio Ruffy
BrazilBrazil

Mauricio Ruffy

Unranked · 14-2 · striker · Orthodox · 30 · IQ C+ 65

Fighting Nerds · Brazil

VS
Michael Chandler
USAUSA

Michael Chandler

“Iron”

#4 · 23-11 · striker · Orthodox · 40 · IQ C+ 65

Kill Cliff FC · USA

Mauricio Ruffy

91.0%

Michael Chandler

9.0%

Model win probability · confidence 86%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Ruffy 91 — the tape favors power striker

Mauricio Ruffy is the model side at 91.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Chandler (ground 46) into Ruffy (TD reaction 61). Timing & reaction is the clearest separator: Ruffy 96 (A+) vs Chandler 28 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Ruffy.

  1. 01

    Timing & reaction

    Ruffy

    Ruffy 96 (A+) vs Chandler 28 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Ruffy.

  2. 02

    Striking defense

    Ruffy

    Ruffy 94 (A+) vs Chandler 41 (D). Ruffy absorbs 0.60/min at 75% defense; Chandler is a softer target at 3.57 SApM.

  3. 03

    Counter punching

    Ruffy

    Ruffy 84 (A) vs Chandler 41 (D). Ruffy's return is the live one (6.00 KD/15, 9 KOs) against Chandler's entries.

  4. 04

    Ground game

    Chandler

    Chandler 46 (D) vs Ruffy 12 (D). Chandler brings 2.0 TD/15 and 7 sub wins into Ruffy's 100% takedown defense.

Path · Ruffy

Ruffy has to stuff the first takedown (61 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 41 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Chandler

Chandler has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Ruffy defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Chandler attacking ground game with their best weapon.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Ruffy is built as: Power striker — live counter. Chandler is built as: Pocket striker — suspect hips against the shot, porous pocket. Fight IQ delta is +1 toward Ruffy — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Timing & reaction: Ruffy 96 (A+) vs Chandler 28 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Ruffy. Striking defense: Ruffy 94 (A+) vs Chandler 41 (D). Ruffy absorbs 0.60/min at 75% defense; Chandler is a softer target at 3.57 SApM. Counter punching: Ruffy 84 (A) vs Chandler 41 (D). Ruffy's return is the live one (6.00 KD/15, 9 KOs) against Chandler's entries.

The finish path leans strikes (66% KO/TKO vs 17% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Chandler attacking ground game with their best weapon. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

RuffyTraitChandler
65 C+
IQ
65 C+
12 D
Ground
46 D
94 A+
Defense
41 D
84 A
Counter
41 D
96 A+
Reaction
28 D
77 B+
Agility
47 D
61 C+
TD react
44 D
70 B
Chin
68 C+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
66%
Submission
17%
Decision
17%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

43%

R2

16%

R3

25%

Dist

17%

Most likely: Round 1. Expected 7.7 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Chandler (ground 46) into Ruffy (TD reaction 61).

  • Damage ratio

    3.27 vs 0.76 landed/absorbed

    Ruffy

  • Striking differential

    2.73 vs -0.91 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Ruffy

  • Striking defense

    77% vs 38%

    Ruffy

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 6/2 UFC rows

    Ruffy

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    A+ vs D

    Ruffy

  • Ground game (tape)

    12 vs 46

    Chandler

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Ruffy

  • Counter punching

    84 vs 41

    Ruffy

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Ruffy

  • Takedown reaction

    100% vs 58% hips on the shot

    Ruffy

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.93 vs 2.89

    Ruffy

  • Reach / length

    75.0" vs 71.5"

    Ruffy

  • Age-adjusted curve

    30 vs 40

    Ruffy

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Chandler

  • Striking efficiency

    57% vs 61%

    Chandler

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Chandler (ground 46) into Ruffy (TD reaction 61).

    Chandler

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Ruffy

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 66 vs 76

    Chandler

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Ruffy

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 90% vs 56%

    Ruffy

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 65 vs C+ 65 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Ruffy

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Ruffy

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Ruffy

Tape

RuffyMetricChandler
4.19SLpM4.04
0.60SApM3.57
59%Str Acc57%
75%Str Def34%
0.00TD Avg1.96
0%TD Acc41%
100%TD Def58%
0.00Sub Avg0.56
6.00KD/150.00
6'3"Reach5'12"
30Age40

Mauricio Ruffy

W

Michael Chandler

KO/TKO · R1 4:29

Jun 15, 2026
W

Fighter 4339488

KO/TKO · R2 4:30

Feb 1, 2026
L

Fighter 4895362

Submission · R2 2:56

Sep 6, 2025
W

Fighter 2502364

KO/TKO · R1 2:07

Mar 9, 2025
W

Fighter 5075748

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Nov 17, 2024
W

Fighter 4064883

KO/TKO · R1 4:42

May 4, 2024

Michael Chandler

L

Mauricio Ruffy

KO/TKO · R1 4:29

Jun 15, 2026
L

Charles Oliveira

Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00

Nov 17, 2024

Your pick

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