OctagonEdge

UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje · Bantamweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Sean O'Malley 72% · KO/TKO · Distance · scored hit (Sean O'Malley / KO/TKO)

Sean O'Malley vs Aiemann Zahabi

Sean O'Malley
USAUSA

Sean O'Malley

“Suga”

Unranked · 20-3 · striker · Switch · 31 · IQ C 60

Red Hawk Academy · USA

VS
Aiemann Zahabi
CanadaCanada

Aiemann Zahabi

Unranked · 14-3 · striker · Orthodox · 38 · IQ C 59

TriStar Gym · Canada

Sean O'Malley

71.8%

Aiemann Zahabi

28.2%

Model win probability · confidence 67%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

O'Malley 72 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Sean O'Malley is the model side at 71.8% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Punching agility is the clearest separator: O'Malley 83 (A) vs Zahabi 50 (D). Hand speed / output lean O'Malley (6.0 SLpM at 61%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    O'Malley

    O'Malley 83 (A) vs Zahabi 50 (D). Hand speed / output lean O'Malley (6.0 SLpM at 61%).

  2. 02

    Counter punching

    O'Malley

    O'Malley 54 (C) vs Zahabi 41 (D). O'Malley's return is the live one (0.93 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Zahabi's entries.

  3. 03

    Timing & reaction

    O'Malley

    O'Malley 74 (B) vs Zahabi 61 (C+). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with O'Malley.

  4. 04

    Takedown reaction

    Zahabi

    Zahabi 69 (B) vs O'Malley 59 (C). When the shot comes, Zahabi stuffs it at 85% — O'Malley is at 84%.

Path · O'Malley

O'Malley has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Zahabi defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

Path · Zahabi

Zahabi wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying O'Malley a long look at durability.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. O'Malley is built as: Volume pressure striker. Zahabi is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is +1 toward O'Malley — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: O'Malley 83 (A) vs Zahabi 50 (D). Hand speed / output lean O'Malley (6.0 SLpM at 61%). Counter punching: O'Malley 54 (C) vs Zahabi 41 (D). O'Malley's return is the live one (0.93 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Zahabi's entries. Timing & reaction: O'Malley 74 (B) vs Zahabi 61 (C+). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with O'Malley.

The finish path leans strikes (49% KO/TKO vs 12% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

O'MalleyTraitZahabi
60 C
IQ
59 C
25 D
Ground
16 D
71 B
Defense
66 C+
54 C
Counter
41 D
74 B
Reaction
61 C+
83 A
Agility
50 D
59 C
TD react
69 B
85 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
49%
Submission
12%
Decision
39%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

29%

R2

16%

R3

15%

Dist

39%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 9.7 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    3.47 vs 1.43 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    O'Malley

  • Damage ratio

    2.38 vs 1.47 landed/absorbed

    O'Malley

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    O'Malley

  • Striking efficiency

    61% vs 49%

    O'Malley

  • Output (SLpM)

    5.98 vs 4.47

    O'Malley

  • Ground game (tape)

    25 vs 16

    O'Malley

  • Counter punching

    54 vs 41

    O'Malley

  • Takedown reaction

    84% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Zahabi

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    O'Malley

  • Reach / length

    72.0" vs 68.5"

    O'Malley

  • Age-adjusted curve

    31 vs 38

    O'Malley

  • Striking defense

    56% vs 59%

    Zahabi

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    B vs C+

    O'Malley

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    O'Malley

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    O'Malley

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    O'Malley

  • Fight IQ

    C 60 vs C 59 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    O'Malley

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    O'Malley

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 84% vs 85%

    Zahabi

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    O'Malley

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    O'Malley

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    O'Malley

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    O'Malley

Tape

O'MalleyMetricZahabi
5.98SLpM4.47
2.51SApM3.04
61%Str Acc49%
56%Str Def59%
0.23TD Avg0.12
43%TD Acc14%
84%TD Def85%
0.23Sub Avg0.00
0.93KD/150.33
6'0"Reach5'9"
31Age38

Sean O'Malley

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Aiemann Zahabi

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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