OctagonEdge

UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje · Heavyweight · 5 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Ciryl Gane 87% · KO/TKO · Round 1 · scored hit (Ciryl Gane / KO/TKO)

Alex Pereira vs Ciryl Gane

Alex Pereira
BrazilBrazil

Alex Pereira

“Poatan”

Unranked · 13-4 · striker · Orthodox · 39 · IQ C 60

Teixeira MMA & Fitness · Brazil

VS
Ciryl Gane
FranceFrance

Ciryl Gane

“Bon Gamin”

#4 · 14-2 · striker · Orthodox · 36 · IQ B 73

MMA Factory · France

Alex Pereira

13.3%

Ciryl Gane

86.7%

Model win probability · confidence 86%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Gane 87 — the tape favors power striker

Ciryl Gane is the model side at 86.7% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Striking defense is the clearest separator: Gane 94 (A+) vs Pereira 68 (C+). Gane absorbs 1.10/min at 75% defense; Pereira is a softer target at 2.85 SApM.

  1. 01

    Striking defense

    Gane

    Gane 94 (A+) vs Pereira 68 (C+). Gane absorbs 1.10/min at 75% defense; Pereira is a softer target at 2.85 SApM.

  2. 02

    Durability

    Pereira

    Pereira 85 (A) vs Gane 61 (C+). Pereira has been finished by strikes 0 times; Gane 0.

  3. 03

    Fight IQ

    Gane

    Gane 73 (B) vs Pereira 60 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Gane (B vs C).

  4. 04

    Timing & reaction

    Gane

    Gane 79 (B+) vs Pereira 69 (B). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Gane.

Path · Pereira

Pereira wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Gane a long look at striking defense.

Path · Gane

Gane wins by forcing the fight into striking defense and denying Pereira a long look at durability.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Pereira attacking ground game with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Gane is built as: Power striker. Pereira is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is +13 toward Gane — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Striking defense: Gane 94 (A+) vs Pereira 68 (C+). Gane absorbs 1.10/min at 75% defense; Pereira is a softer target at 2.85 SApM. Durability: Pereira 85 (A) vs Gane 61 (C+). Pereira has been finished by strikes 0 times; Gane 0. Fight IQ: Gane 73 (B) vs Pereira 60 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Gane (B vs C).

The finish path leans strikes (53% KO/TKO vs 17% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Pereira attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

PereiraTraitGane
60 C
IQ
73 B
25 D
Ground
32 D
68 C+
Defense
94 A+
66 C+
Counter
65 C+
69 B
Reaction
79 B+
75 B
Agility
69 B
61 C+
TD react
67 C+
85 A
Chin
61 C+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
53%
Submission
17%
Decision
30%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

36%

R2

18%

R3

14%

R4

1%

R5

1%

Dist

30%

Most likely: Round 1. Expected 11.8 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

  • Damage ratio

    1.76 vs 5.49 landed/absorbed

    Gane

  • Striking differential

    2.16 vs 5.39 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Gane

  • Striking defense

    58% vs 76%

    Gane

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs A+

    Gane

  • Fight IQ

    C 60 vs B 73 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Gane

  • Output (SLpM)

    5.01 vs 6.59

    Gane

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Pereira

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 79

    Gane

  • Ground game (tape)

    25 vs 32

    Gane

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Gane

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Gane

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Gane

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 100% hips on the shot

    Gane

  • Reach / length

    79.0" vs 81.0"

    Gane

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Pereira

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/2 UFC rows

    Gane

  • Age-adjusted curve

    39 vs 36

    Gane

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Pereira

  • Counter punching

    66 vs 65

    Pereira

  • Striking efficiency

    66% vs 66%

    Pereira

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 85% vs 90%

    Pereira

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

    Pereira

  • Championship / 5-round

    Five-round experience matters

    Pereira

Tape

PereiraMetricGane
5.01SLpM5.40
2.85SApM1.10
66%Str Acc63%
58%Str Def75%
0.11TD Avg0.66
50%TD Acc24%
85%TD Def100%
0.22Sub Avg0.58
1.32KD/150.00
6'7"Reach6'9"
39Age36

Alex Pereira

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Ciryl Gane

W

Serghei Spivac

KO/TKO · R2 3:44

Sep 2, 2023
L

Francis Ngannou

Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00

Jan 23, 2022

Your pick

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